Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 262345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
545 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG SOUTH SHORE.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS NE MN TO CLOUD SKIES WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW WI.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS NE
MN AND MOST OF NW WI EXCEPT ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
IN NW WI IN THAT AREA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED.
MODELS INDICATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH TO NW THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 85H TEMPS ARE ALREADY AROUND -10
AND WILL DROP TO AROUND -15 BY 06Z. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE GOOD
TONIGHT. AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS STILL SHOW THE DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH 3-6 INCHES FROM
DOUGLAS COUNTY TO ASHLAND WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN IRON COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES UNCHANGED.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE
FIGURES TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA BY
06Z FRIDAY. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL GET
THE LIGHT SNOW GOING W OF HWY 169 AND W OF HWY 38 IN NE MN. TO THE E
OF THIS AREA...SFC RIDGE AXIS/DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 06Z...THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE FA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FRONT. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL QPF SO WILL USE A MODEL BLEND.
THIS LEADS TO A BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OUT OVER NW
WI FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE
AREA ON FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS PLACES THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN
NW WI TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. MODEL DIFFERENCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE
PRESENT WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE THE
ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO LIFT IT NWD TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL
KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE FA AS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME A BIT LARGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO A BETTER AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY POPS OVER THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WNW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TURNING TO THE W AND ENDING. HAVE
SOME SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING OVER THE FA. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. WAA WILL
BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC LOW TO MOVE ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED THROUGH THE FA AND
HAVE SOME POPS FOR EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AROUND KHYR...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3   9   4  19 /  20   0  80  80
INL -11   8   0  17 /   0   0  50  30
BRD  -6   9   6  21 /   0   0  80  40
HYR   0  11   1  22 /  60   0  80  80
ASX   6  13   2  22 /  80  50  50  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-147-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP





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