Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 020615 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 1930Z. CLOUDS
COVERED A PORTION OF THE REGION THANKS TO THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
FEEDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WAS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH EASTERN SD AND GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
IN CHECK. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE ITS
EXPECTED TO HANG TOGETHER THIS EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS
AND THEIR QPF. TRIED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIRES MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE WHERE AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ON ITS NEWD TRAJECTORY AND WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY
NW WI. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ELSEWHERE AS ARW MODEL HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEARBY. USED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LINGERING S/W WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW WI THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A S/W LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WRN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF
THE SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME AND PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR TO INFILTRATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM...BUT OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DLH/HYR...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE AT BRD/HIB. HAZE AND FOG WILL
RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER NEAR HYR UNTIL 17Z. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AT DLH...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR NOW. EXPECT VSBYS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03.01Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AFTER 03.06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  63  75  64 /  30  20  10  10
INL  85  64  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  83  65  85  68 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  83  64  84  67 /  30  20  10  10
ASX  82  60  83  63 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK


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