Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 282305
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A strong closed southern stream trough navigates the
Central/Southern Plains over the next 24 hours. The attendant
severe weather threat will stay well to the south, but the
northern periphery of the rain shield will work as far north as
southern MN and central WI on Wednesday afternoon. The hi-res
models have trended a bit slower, and for the most part do not
bring precip to the I-90 corridor until around 21z. By 00z
Thursday, precip looks to reach a Redwood Falls, to southern Twin
Cities, to Eau Claire line.

In the meantime, we could see patchy fog development again
tonight, especially over west central WI where winds are lighter
and cloud cover will be lesser. Do not expect as many reports of
dense fog given the ridge axis has shifted east, but 1-3sm
visibilities appear possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period across
southern Minnesota as isentropic upglide brings the precip shield as
far north as the southern Twin Cities metro. Profiles cool just
enough as Thursday morning progresses to introduce a rain/snow mix
across west-central WI & the I-90 corridor in far-southern MN,
however no snowfall accumulation is expected. Heaviest QPF amounts
of around 0.25" are expected across far-southern MN by the time
precip moves out early Thursday afternoon, with no more than a few
hundredths for points north.

Split flow across the CONUS will continue to dominate through the
weekend and into next week, with the area stuck in the benign area
between active patterns to our north & south. Upper-level ridging
returns Thursday evening leading to a quiet Friday across the state.
Temperatures through Friday will remain above normal, which should
allow us to just barely eek out our 19th month in a row of above
normal temperatures. The weekend shows glancing blows from systems
in the split flow, with a potent shortwave moving across the US-
Canadian border Saturday potentially leading to some light rain for
the far NW CWA. On Sunday, yet another developing low-pressure
across the southern plains may lead to a chance of light rain across
the I-90 corridor. There`s still a little uncertainty on just how
much moisture will be available for each system but regardless, it
should be a pleasant Spring weekend for much of the CWA.

Another system looks likely to impact the area towards mid-week, but
models are still in disagreement with timing & precipitation
amounts. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

An organized low pressure system moving out of the OK/TX panhandle
region into the mid-Mississippi River Valley region through
tomorrow will drag a weak surface trough far north enough by late
tomorrow to potentially produce a few light rain showers in
southern MN into southwestern WI late tomorrow into tomorrow
evening. Much, if not all, of this activity will occur beyond this
24-hour period so have only mentioned precipitation in the last
6-hours of MSP. Therefore, VFR conditions will prevail through
tomorrow afternoon with gradually lowering ceilings as the day
progresses, mainly for eastern/southern MN into western WI.
Light/variable winds overnight will become easterly tomorrow in
the 5-10 knot range.

KMSP...High confidence in VFR through tomorrow afternoon then, as
the trough approaches from the southeast, there is a growing
chance of MVFR ceilings tomorrow evening (potentially during or
just after the evening push). A few light rain showers are
possible but nothing that is expected to drop visibility below 6SM
at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Chc -RA. Wind E at 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JPC


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