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000
FXUS63 KMPX 180914
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT
GENERATED A SWATH OF CONVECTION ORIENTED ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.
ASSOCIATED ELEVATED COLD POCKET LED TO AN IMPRESSIVE STEEPENING OF
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE HAIL WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING...SO THE CONCERN
FOR SEVERE HAIL HAS LESSENED...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOPWRF
IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SCENARIO WELL...AND INDICATES THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP EXITING THE AREA BY 15Z...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MN AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
NEAR THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WILL THEN BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH
MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SLOW PROGRESSION OF NEW
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER FAR WESTERN MONTANA...INTO FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN IN WESTERN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD

KMSP...

VFR EXPECTED WITH JUST A 2 TO 3 HR WINDOW WITH SHOWER CHANCES
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF ND. THIS SHOULDN`T REDUCE THE VIS/CIGS AND THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE THE SHOWERS MISS THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NIGHT...VFR WITH CHC OF MVFR AND SHRA/TS. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TS. SSE WINDS 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TS. S WINDS 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...CLF