Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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954
FXUS63 KMPX 230522
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1122 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Water vapor imagery showing upper low drifting slowly e-ne across
northeast MO this afternoon. Enhanced area of clouds now over
southeast MN and is beginning to pivot. Another area of enhanced
clouds drifting into far southern MN where moderate to heavy snow
has been falling much of the afternoon. Strong north/northeast
winds gusting to 35-40 kts at times continue into south central
area, where they have already observed 8 to 12 in the heavy snow
band. Significant blowing and drifting snow with near whiteout
conditions expected to continue through the remainder of the
afternoon in the blizzard warning area. The greater rates have
worked into the southern Metro where 1 to 2 inches an hour will
likely continue through about 6-7 PM. Will likely see around a
foot of snow in Scott and Dakota Co. with 6 to 10 inches likely
across the metro.

The system is forecast to exit to the east this evening and will
continue the headlines through 06Z. An addition 1 to 3 inches
likely accumulating after 6 PM over the southeast area.

Trimmed the highs for Tuesday over the expected heavy snow area
over south central MN into western WI. Otherwise, we should see
more sunshine for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The weather pattern will be progressive for the extended period,
however no significant hazardous weather is expected. The shortwave
that is anticipated to pass through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning will keep skies mostly cloudy through Thursday. Temperatures
will become more mild as the week continues as the thermal ridge
builds-in on Thursday and continues through Friday. Temperatures
will be above-normal with highs reaching the lower to mid 40s on
Friday.

This third January thaw will not last long as a cold front will
arrive late Friday into Saturday morning. Depending on the exact
timing of the front, Saturday may be one of those days where the
high temperatures of mid to upper 30s occur close to midnight in the
Eastern half of our CWA. There is a chance for light snowfall late
Saturday into Sunday, primarily over West Central Wisconsin, with an
upper-level trough in place. Temperatures will remain near normal to
slightly below normal on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Snow is quickly dissipating and is really only left at EAU and it
will be done there by 10z. Big issue now is cig trends through the
night. The HRRR and other short term models continue to
aggressively clear out MVFR cigs in the wake of this system. Over
the last hour we are getting signs of this happening on satellite,
with VFR conditions quickly approaching STC from the north. Went
quicker with clearing the cigs than the LAV did, though this
aspect of the forecast has a bit lower confidence.

KMSP...Tough call on when cigs will clear out with subsidence in
wake of snow. HCD/OVL/LJF have cleared out and you can see this
clearing gaining momentum, so think MSP could clear out the MVFR
cigs much earlier than 16z. At the tail end of this TAF period
we`ll have another sfc trough/warm front approaching, with the
threat for more MVFR/IFR cigs increasing Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...MVFR/IFR cigs. Winds SW 5 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR/IFR cigs. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Winds S-SW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ060>063-
     067>070-074>078-084-085-093.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ053-
     066.

     Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ082-083-091-
     092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...MPG



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