Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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708
FXUS63 KMPX 081150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS
ACROSS THE WEST...AND NEAR 20KTS IN THE EASTERN SITE IN WISCONSIN.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OBS HAVE BASES HIGHER THAN
MODEL OUTPUT. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS.

KMSP...

MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. VISBYS COULD TEMPORARILY GO DOWN TO 1-2 MILES
WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER...BUT DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT AND
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW
SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST IS LOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



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