Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 222023
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT
FOR SOME CLOUDS NORTH OF STC AND IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN DROPPING ALL DAY FROM THEIR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NORTH OF MPX TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS COOLER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COME INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AND
SLIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN IT SLIDES
INTO THE UNITED STATES IN NRN ND...MOVES ACROSS MN SATURDAY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY GIVING THE
AREA SOME DRY DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD IS BAND OF POST-
FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. LUCKILY THIS AREA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST
AND THINING SOMEWHAT SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MN
SITES MOST OF AFTERNOON AND A BIT LATER IN DAY FOR WI SIDE. EITHER
WAY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WAVE EXITS TO EAST...AND DRYING AT MOST LEVELS
CONTINUES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG
FORMATION...ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA COULD
ALLOW A FEW PLACES TO DECOUPLE SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS.

ON WEDNESDAY DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD FORM EARLIEST ON
WI SIDE OR CLOSER TO IOWA BORDER.

KMSP...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS /GUSTS TO 18-22KTS/
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WELL. DIURNAL CUMULUS DECK ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
THU NGT...VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KNOTS.
FRI...VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 10-15KTS.
FRI NGT...VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT TSRA. WINDS S/SE AT 5-8KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W/NW AT 10-15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...ARX







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