Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 250852
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF LOW PRES CENTERS...
ONE OVER FAR S-CENTRAL MN AND A SECOND OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...
CONNECTED BY A WEAVING QUASI-STNRY FRONT. FLOW ALOFT IS DECIDEDLY
MERIDIONAL DUE TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SERN CONUS AND A DEEP UPR LVL LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION DUE TO THIS UPR
LVL SETUP...A LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC
FRONT ALLOWED PLENTY OF LIGHT-MOD RAIN TO SPREAD N OVER THE WFO MPX
CWFA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FNT ALSO LIFTING NWD...PRECIP BEHIND THE
FRONT IS MORE SPARSE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE THRU THE
MRNG HRS. AM CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR AS THE
UPR LVL LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NNE IN CONCERT WITH THE SFC FEATURES...
BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WITH SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE /PWATS AROUND
1.50 INCHES/ WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC SETUP OVER THE AREA. THAT
SAID...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THE DRY SLOTTING BY DROPPING POPS TO THE
SLGT-LOW CHC RANGE OVER SRN MN BY MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING THAT
TREND NWD INTO THIS AFTN. THE FLIP SIDE OF HAVING A DRY SLOT AND
POTENTIALLY ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IS THAT THIS WOULD ALLOW
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION TO GROW ANY WORTHWHILE INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS.
PREVAILING THINKING IS THAT THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH OCNL SHWRS LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE GROWTH SO HAVE CONFINED SLGT
CHC TSTM MENTION TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. OVERALL...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PRECIP COVERAGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT TSTMS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA...IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING AS THE
UPR LVL LOW LIFTS INTO NRN MN AND THE SFC FEATURES SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
IN TANDEM WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE...
TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED DUE TO THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
REMAINING N AND SOME POTENTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST S DUE TO THE
DRY SLOTTING. THUS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A 10-DEGREE OR SO GRADIENT OF
HIGH TEMPS FROM N TO S ACRS THE CWFA TDA...WITH CENTRAL MN HOLDING
IN THE LWR 60S WHILE HIGHS HIT THE LWR 70S NEAR THE IA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ONCE THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM THE CO/KS AREA
AND BRING PRECIP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI AS
MID LEVEL OMEGA MAX BECOMES FOCUSED IN THAT REGION ALONG WITH DEEP
SATURATION. FURTHER WEST...DRY AIR AND DESCENT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. FORCING IS NOT GREAT BUT THERE IS SOME LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH COULD HELP PRODUCE HIGHER PRECIP VALUES
THAN THE UNDER QUARTER INCH CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS SURGE TO NEAR 16C. MIX DOWN FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY GAVE TEMPS
IN THE AROUND 80 FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECTING DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WE GET BACK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A
CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...SO STILL CARRYING WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE WARM AND MOIST SIDE
OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...CANADIAN HIGH STILL ON TRACK TO
DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BRING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE FA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR TAF. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...WITH IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE.
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HIRES MODELS CLEAR OUT
THE PRECIP BY MORNING...SO TAPERED OFF THE RAIN IN THE TAFS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING AROUND
500FT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BY MORNING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 1700FT CEILINGS...BUT INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB


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