Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 132025
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
225 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Forecast concern in the near term remains timing of stratus
development/advection over the region tonight and threat of
freezing drizzle into parts of west central WI.

Stratus over Iowa still looks like it should develop/advect north
over the cwa this evening. Primarily 00z-03z period. Most short
term HIRES models should the possibility of drizzle/fog with this
as well. BUFKIT cross sections showing cloud deck should be thick
enough to generate mist/drizzle, Continued the lower end chance
PoPs for this over the eastern half of the area into Tuesday.
Surface temperatures may be around freezing/slightly below over a
portion of west central WI at least for part of the night.
Temepratures may steady off or slowly rise after the thicker
stratus arrives.

Ahead of the front, we should maintain the lower clouds through
most of the day Tuesday as the incoming upper trough approaches.
It still looks like overall redevelopment of rain should occur
from extreme east central MN and west central WI into late
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are still expected to remain mild
with some lower 50s possible again across the southwest before
fropa.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Longer term should trend much colder again by next weekend.

The initial front exits the east by Wednesday with brief cooling.
Blustery northwest winds follow this front and clouds holding on
to mainly the northern and eastern cwa. Then the next pacific
trough move east over the cwa later Thursday night through Friday
night, and may linger into the far east into Saturday. We continue
with the categorical PoPs to the east with east central MN on the
edge of this precipitation field.

The deterministic models diverge on overall upper air pattern
later in the period with the GFS more amplified with the eastern
conus trough over the weekend. Still looks like we should draw
down below normal temperatures again along with a rain changing to
wet snow scenario later Friday night and over the east into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Timing of the developing/advecting stratus from Iowa in the
southerly low level flow is the main concern. Looks like it
should be moving into most taf sites 00z- 03z period. Expect
lowering vsbys...especially over central mn into western wi
overnight with -dz. Could see a period of -fzdz over parts of
WI...it appears KEAU will be on the fringe of that possibility
with remaining drier sfc dewpts initially. Done expect much
improvement in the IFS/LIFR into Tuesday morning.

KMSP...VFR conditions becoming at least MVFR by 00z and IFR
developing through 03z with -dz br. Little improvement into Tue
morning with perhaps rising to mvfr through 17z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue night...MVFR cigs. Chc -DZ. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW.
Wed...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 15G20 kts.
Thu...VFR with MVFR/-RASN possible late. Wind SE 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE



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