Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 212327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Subsidence from upper level ridging led to surface high pressure,
clear skies, and northerly winds across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Despite the cool air mass, afternoon highs managed to climb into
the 30s for most locations, but this was still 5 to 8 degrees
below the seasonal average for late March.

Overnight skies will remain clear and winds will taper off
slightly allowing temperatures too fall off into the single digits
across western Wisconsin, and teens elsewhere.

On Wednesday, a band of light precip is expected to develop across
western Minnesota. Thermal profiles show a mix of rain or snow.
Accumulations will only be around a few hundredths.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

An upper level trough currently located off the California coast
will dive southward and emerge from the 4-corners region as a
tightly wound upper level low. A slow moving low pressure system
will track eastward with this wave, and widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the warm front and in the warm
sector. Forecast models have trended southward with this wave, and
do not have high confidence in the path since it is arguably cut
off from the main flow and also will have a tremendous amount of
latent heating associated with it. As of now the heaviest precip
will fall along the I-90 corridor.

Looking ahead, another trough will follow quickly on its heels,
but this is in a split flow regime so continued with the blended
guidance for pops and temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Few concerns this TAF period as high pressure slides from near
Winnipeg down into the Great Lakes. Very dry low level air will
keep us dry through the period, with cloud cover increasing
through the day Wednesday as we get back into return flow.

KMSP...High confidence TAF with no precip and only increasing mid
level clouds expected Wednesday. Expect winds to go south of an
040 direction overnight, so should be no issues in switching over
to operating off the 12s with the switch happening in a quiet
volume period.

Thu...MVFR. Chc -RA in afternoon & night. Wind SSE 10-15 kt.
Fri...MVFR with -RA likely. Wind NE 5-10 kt.
Sat...Chance MVFR/-RASN. Wind NE 10-15 kt.




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