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000
FXUS63 KMPX 290359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FOR MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN IS SHEARING/WEAKENING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY CUMULUS NOTED...AND PERHAPS A LIGHT
SHOWER AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL MN PER LATEST RADAR TREND.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD EXIT THROUGH 00Z TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME SHRA ASSOCIATED. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK CONVECTION AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATED THIS AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE WAVE TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE AFFECTING AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT THAT UNSTABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT NOT THAT HIGH.
PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S TO SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE UNDERNEATH
FAIRLY PERSISTENT NW FLOW. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
SWING AROUND THE WRN FRINGES OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...THROUGH THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC SUPPORT DUE TO HIGH PRES KEEPING ANY
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AWAY WILL MEAN ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN A BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRES...ALLOWING WEAK
SFC LOW PRES AREAS TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MEANS A
SLIGHT INCRS IN POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA /AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA/ FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO POPS ARE
KEPT IN THE 20-30 RANGE. IN FACT...OVERALL QPF OVER THE NEXT WEEK
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER INCH AND MANY PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN STILL ALLOWS FOR VERY LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIT THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
WHILE LOWS DROP TO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT IN MN AND ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER...BUT
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AGL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF KEAU. IT
MIGHT NICK LADYSMITH TONIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WISC TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME THUNDER. THREAT IS NOT YET STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN THE KEAU TAF BUT DID ADD VCSH. NW WIND MIGHT GUST ABOVE 10
KNOTS AMID DAYTIME HEATING.

KMSP... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THEN MORE CU WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THIS MAY GO BROKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF KMSP. MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON IS ALSO WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS 10-15 KTS BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN THE TAFS RIGHT NOW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...TDK