Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 120443
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1043 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS HAVE COME TO RULE THE DAY AS WE HAVE GOTTEN INTO A WEAK WAA
REGIME OUT AHEAD OF AN EQUALLY WORK SFC THROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NRN MN THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN
LACKING AND FGEN FORCING IS WEAKER/FARTHER SW THAN WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY...SO STILL ANTICIPATING SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER MOVING
THROUGH SODAK THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN LARGELY SW OF THE MPX CWA.
ABOUT THE ONLY PART OF MN THAT HAS MUCH OF CHANCE AT SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE AREAS SW OF A MARSHALL TO FAIRMONT LINE...WHICH
DOES NOT LEAVE YOU VERY MUCH OF THE MPX CWA /SW CORNER OF MARTIN
COUNTY/.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NRN MN IS A 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH
WHICH IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY GET HERE SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH MEANS WE
SPEND MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THAT HIGH WORKING IN.
EVENTUALLY...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN THE SKIES CLEARING OUT...BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THAT
CLEARING TO GET HERE...AS IT IS STILL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING LOOKS TO RAPIDLY PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FRIDAY MORNING. COMING
ALONG WITH THE CLEARING THOUGH WILL BE THE RETURN OF STRONGER NW
WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH GUST POTENTIAL...BUT
FAIRLY UNIFORM WINDS BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY HEALTHY AND PERSISTENT NW WIND TO GO WITH
THOSE SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP LOWS UP IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN AND NW WI...BUT STRONG CAA
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ALL DAY. FOR UP IN CENTRAL MN...WE
CURRENTLY HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 25 AND 28
BELOW ZERO...BUT THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN UNTIL BETWEEN 7AM AND 11AM
FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVY FOR A
BORDERLINE EVENT THAT LOOKS TO LARGELY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE. BIGGER
WIND CHILL ISSUES LOOK TO COME FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONCERN IS STILL HOW COLD WILL THE
TEMPERATURES GO AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SETS THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WILL TALK MORE ABOUT THE SUNDAY SYSTEM NEXT...BUT THE
CONCERN WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
CLOUDS TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD LIMIT OUR COOLING POTENTIAL LATE IN THE
NIGHT. REGARDLESS...ITS GOING TO BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FA WITH
WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE -20S AND MAYBE EVEN -30S ACROSS THE
AREA. WHAT MAKES THIS A TRICKY SITUATION FOR HEADLINES IS THE FACT
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GETTING LIGHTER TO CALM THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...THE ARCTIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND
A SHORTWAVE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A DECENT AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA...WITH THE BEST FORCING BEING FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE GOING
FORECAST THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CONSISTENCY...STILL EXPECT GENERALLY
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER 4
INCHES IN FAR WESTERN MN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH
BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND ON HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE...SO NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION YET. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
BEHIND THIS WE WILL SEE COLD AIR ADVECTION COOL THINGS BACK DOWN
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE MILD AIR RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
THE JET STREAM MOVES OVERHEAD...OR POSSIBLY NORTH OF US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM KMSP TO KRGK WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AT MOST OCCURRING AT SITES AFTER 08Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
MORE SOLIDLY NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G25KTS DURING
THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.

KMSP...
LIGHT SNOW ENDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR
BY 09Z. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS DEVELOP AROUND 15Z FRI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND VRB03KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN LIKELY. WIND SSE 15 KT.
MON...MVFR/VFR CIGS. WIND W 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS


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