844
FXUS63 KMPX 150048
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
748 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm & humid the rest of today into tomorrow.

- Thunderstorms expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
  Locally heavy rain is likely in addition to a chance for
  severe storms Tuesday evening.

- Additional chances for thunderstorms this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Overall turning out to be a nice afternoon despite it feeling a
a tad muggy. Some clouds mixed with wild fire smoke exist across
northern MN and another narrow band of cu exists along a
surface boundary from southern MN into western WI. One thing to
note is that surface instability is quite high given the
warmer/muggier conditions however, convection is not expected to
initiate due to low-level capping near 850mb. Thus continued to
maintain practically null PoPs through this evening.
Temperatures for the rest of today should peak in the upper 80s
to near 90 this afternoon with lows only cooling into the low to
mid 70s overnight.

Tuesday through Wednesday`s forecast features both heat and
storms.  For much of the day, increasing southerly flow will
continue to bring warmer moist air into the upper midwest.
Temperatures are forecasted to warm into the low to mid 90s for
most areas less those across north-central MN where cloud cover
and precip from a developing cold front could help keep
conditions a little cooler. Where sunshine looks to be more
prevalent, decided to blend in some NBM 90th percentile Max
Temps to reflect current thinking for warmer conditions. With
that said, heat indices will uncomfortably range between 95 to
near 100 degrees across the Twin Cities metro where a heat
advisory will be in effect through Tuesday evening.

Now for Tuesday into Wednesday`s thunderstorm threat, low
pressure over the PacNorthwest becomes positively tilted and
ejects a shortwave out of the Rockies. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned cold front over the Dakotas advances eastward.
Its expected that by Tuesday afternoon and evening these
features converge to what will generate showers and
thunderstorms. The SPC has maintained a marginal risk of severe
storms for much of central and southern MN and western WI,
however an upgrade to a slight risk was published for portions
of north-central MN and northwest WI. The environment will
continue to be unstable with 2500 to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 20 to
35kt shear profiles supporting a few rotating updrafts to
produce a large hail and damaging wind threat. Currently, a
tornado risk looks more favorable within the slight risk area
due to the frontal boundary being forecasted to strengthen with
support of stronger flow aloft. Storm mode will feature multi-
cell clusters congealing into broken linear segments. Another
concern with these storms will be heavy rainfall. Forecast
soundings indicating PWAT values near 2" which supports 1 to 2"
p/hr rainfall rates. Training convection does not look to be a
case here but more so some that areas could see multiple rounds
of thunderstorms which would increase any flooding risk.
Overall, a few localized areas could see potentially 2 to 3" of
rainfall, although more realistically ranging between 1 to 2
inches across central MN and western WI, and then 0.5 to 1"
across southern MN.

By Thursday we dry out as high pressure builds with skies
gradually clearing throughout the day. Most noticeably will be
temperatures at least 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.
Wildfire smoke could be possible given NW`ly flow but still too
far out to determine if any impacts to air quality will occur.
Temperatures are forecasted to range in the low 70s with with
dew points in the mid 50s. The cooler temperatures wont last
long though as temps return to near 80 by the end of the week
with dew points in the mid 60s. Next shot at rainfall looks to
potentially be Saturday, and then again on Monday into Tuesday,
however guidance needs to tighten up timing before committing
categorical pops to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR at initialization and through sunrise tomorrow morning.
Clouds will be on the increase through the day, with chances for
SHRA/TSRA ramping up late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Have introduced precip chances at the tail end of this TAF set
for all sites except MKT which is far enough south to not have
any precip chance prior to 00z. S winds through tonight will
become SW during the day tomorrow with speeds near or slightly
under 10kts.

KMSP...Dry thru mid-afternoon, then chances for SHRA/TSRA ramp
up from about 22z onward, with precipitation likely/prevailing
from about 00z onward. Mostly rain but TSRA will have fairly
appreciable coverage going into the evening hours, resulting in
MVFR conditions, possibly IFR conditions due to visibility.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC