Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 280355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERALL COVERAGE ALONG WITH MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING UPPER CIRCULATION LIFTING
INTO SOUTHERN MN AT THIS TIME. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS MOVING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT THIS TIME. PRESENTLY...THE CELLS ARE
MOVING NORTH AROUND 18KTS. RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING...AND WOULD WORK
INTO EAST CENTRAL MN LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 21Z. MAY SEE
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CHANCE UNTIL 02Z. WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY WANE THEN AFTER PEAK
HEATING...WITH PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS LEFT OVER INTO THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND MAY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT OVER THE EASTERN
CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMP WILL BE ALLOWED TO DROP OFF AGAIN
WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE SLIGHT. WILL
MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE EAST FOR NOW.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA AROUND 00Z MON. WILL FOLLOW THAT CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
FOR THE MOMENT WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING MAINLY AFTER 00Z MON. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN UNFOLDS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT DIP FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO/MINNESOTA TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
ASSOCIATED FORCING AND LAYER MOISTURE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST
SUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN MN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH WI...WHERE 20
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE 60S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH
LOW TO MID 70S LOOKING ACHIEVABLE TO THE SOUTH.

ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW EJECTS FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WITH AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CIRCA 990MB PROGGED BY 27.12Z GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. DECENT ASSOCIATED 700-600MB FORCING ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...REINFORCING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
PIGGY-BACK ON THE DEPARTING WAVES...AND RESULT IN PROLONGING OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT BY SATURDAY...BUT COOLER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED -SHRA ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING UNDERNEATH A ROTATING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTER
SHIFTING N THROUGH SRN AND CENTRAL MN. ALL TAF SITES TO REMAIN
PRECIP-FREE. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO OF MVFR-TO-IFR BR AT THE WI
TAF SITES...WITH KEAU THE WORSE OF THE TWO PER CLIMATOLOGY. MIDLVL
CU WITH UPR LVL CI TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. LGT SE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME S-SW DURG THE DAY TMRW WITH SPEEDS AOB
10 KT...THEN WINDS TO GO LGT/VRBL TMRW EVE.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 28/06Z TAF SET. AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG/BR TO IMPACT KMSP IN THE PRE-DAWN HRS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC






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