Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160959
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW IS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING IN MINNESOTA...TAPERING
TO FLURRIES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT THE NOON HOUR. BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING - THEN LOOK FOR A NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURE TODAY. ICY OR SNOWY ROADS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING IF
THEY HAVEN`T BEEN TREATED...ESPECIALLY IN MINNESOTA.

THERE IS ABOUT A 16MB MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING TO GO ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...A
CHANGE FROM THE FOG AND DRIZZLE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS YIELDING GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-40MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE
THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS IN THE DAKOTAS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW...ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN WESTERN MN UNTIL THE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TRAILING UPPER LOW
CENTER AND VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REASON WE HAVE MAINTAINED OCCASIONAL VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM RELATIVE TO THE RECENT
WARM STRETCH...BUT THESE TEMPS ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH CLIMATE NORMAL
FOR MID DECEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL A QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO REAL CONCERNS WEATHER-WISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH FROM
CANADA WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH A POCKET OF
LOCALLY COOL AIR POSITIONED OVERHEAD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY
FOR MID DECEMBER.  THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THE
TRUE ARCTIC REGION THANKS TO A NORTHERN JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
THE BAGGY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...BUT STILL LINGER IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS
WAVE...CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING A SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS.  THE GFS...WHICH WAS THE NORTHERN
SOLUTION WITH PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA...HAS NOW SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH
AROUND NEXT TUESDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  BEING A
WEEK AWAY HOWEVER...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AXIS NOW OVER KMSP TO NEAR KRNH. IT SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW AT THESE TWO SITES BY THE START OF THE TAF. KEAU WILL HAVE
RAIN TILL 09Z-10Z WITH LIGHT SNOW THEREAFTER UNTIL 16Z. THE SNOW
HAS ENDED AT KAXN WITH KRWF AND KSTC HAVING AROUND 2 MORE HOURS
OF STEADY SNOW. CEILINGS HAVE BOUNCED UP INTO THE OVC015-020 RANGE
WITH THE SNOW BUT AS IT ENDS THEY WILL LIKELY SETTLE BACK A BIT
INTO THE 010-015 RANGE. MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ON TUESDAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCT CONDITIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS THE STRONG WINDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM OVER EASTERN IA
WILL CAUSE NEAR 25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTS WILL REACH 40 KNOTS. NEAR 20 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS FAR EAST AS KMSP AND
KRNH.

KMSP...CHANGEOVER THE SNOW UNDERWAY WITH LIGHT SNOW UNTIL 10Z THEN
ENDING BY 12Z. OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH






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