Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 052132
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
332 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LIGHT SNOW THAT WAS FORECASTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WAS
LIMITED TO FLURRIES DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER BLW 5K. IN
ADDITION...FORCING WAS CENTERED IN SD/NE AND WESTERN
IOWA...WITH LITTLE FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLURRIES...OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SC MN...NE TO WC WI DURING THE EVENING...MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS RISING ABV FREEZING
AHEAD OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WILL LIKELY RISE ABV 40
DEGREES...BUT STRONG SW WINDS DEVELOPING WILL KEEP IT COOLER.
ELSEWHERE...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE LONG TERM CONCERN TURNS TO POTENTIAL GROUND BLIZZARD DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MN.

MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY
ACROSS WESTERN MN AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST AND A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO 8MB PRESSURE RISES NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST
MN AND STRONG CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATED STEEP LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO
REACH NEAR TOP OF THE CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS AROUND
50 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION. LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FURTHER LIMIT VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH THE
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LASTING 2-3 HOURS OR
MORE. EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO ARRIVE BY 18Z INTO WESTERN MN AND
DROP SOUTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN CWA
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END. AS
THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE AND MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.

THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK....WITH SOME POTENTIAL BELOW ZERO READINGS...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LONGER TERM DRY AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT -SN WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE NEXT 6
HRS...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEXT 6 HRS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF -SN
LOWERING VSBY IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K
WILL INHIBIT -SN TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN FOR MOST
MSP TAF SITES. ONLY KAXN/KSTC/KRWF WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE OF 3-5SM
IN -SN DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND SPREAD SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI BY EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 21-06Z. AFT 06Z...VFR CONDS
SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS WILL START TO THE SE IN WESTERN WI...AND
S/SW IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW/WEST
DURING THE AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW/S BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THE MOST OF THE -SN WILL MISS THE
AIRPORT...OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES...POSSIBLY LOWERING VSBY IN
THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS /AOB 2K/ WILL
DEVELOP BY 00Z...AND LAST A FEW HRS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
START FROM THE SSE ARND 10 KTS...VEER TO THE SW/W BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING...THEN BACK AGAIN TO THE SW/S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS...BCMG NW AT 20G35KT LATE.
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-055.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR MNZ054-056-064-065-073-074-082-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT


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