Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 180408
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1108 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

A potent upper level wave will bring multiple rounds of storms
capable of producing severe weather. Damaging wind, tornadoes, and
large hail are all possible. These storms will be moving quickly
from the south at speeds near 50 mph.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery together with RAP13 heights and
winds showed a compact upper level PV anomaly across eastern
Nebraska. Forecast models continue to lift this low up across
southern and eastern Minnesota later today.  A surface low will
track along this same path. Since this is vertically stacked system,
the minimum pressure will be fairly steady and may even rise
slightly.

This system is dynamically driven meaning there is very strong
forcing in the presence of a marginal thermodynamic environment.
Storm should develop and move quickly this afternoon and evening. It
appears there will be two waves. The first is currently lifting
across southern MN, and the second is across southwest Iowa and will
rotate northeast later this evening. All modes of severe weather are
possible. Hail and tornadoes are more favored early on, with
damaging wind expected as the low level shear increases later this
evening. Heavy rain is also a threat this evening. Storm will be
moving quickly, but multiple rounds could lead to a few more inches
of rain by the time the system exits the region Thursday morning.
Run accumulation from the HiRes models show local maxima of 2 to 3
inches. Did not issue a flash flood watch due the progressive speed
of the storms, and the fact that any high-end potential flooding
event is very low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

By tomorrow evening, a large area of high pressure will be centered
across south central Canada, with dry northeasterly flow at the
surface making its way into Minnesota and cool 850H temps falling to
0 to +2 C.  Meanwhile, a closed upper low will be over the four
corners region and will be our next system of interest.  By Friday
morning the jet will intensify with the streak pointed from near the
TX panhandle pointed into Iowa.  POPs increase from south to north
on Friday as this system begins ejecting northeast and perturbations
in the flow are sent ahead of the main upper trough toward our area.

The main forcing with the large upper trough will arrive early
Saturday, so fully expect rain to be moving through early Saturday
morning from the south, and lasting through the day as the surface
low moves northward directly through our area.  Instability will be
limited to the warm sector so we could see thunderstorms in eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin as this lifts through.  As this
system continues on its northeasterly course this Saturday night
into Sunday, we will see northwesterly flow but with conditions
drying out, we should see highs a few degrees warmer than Saturday
(which with plentiful rain will be held in the low to mid 50s).

As we get into early next week, an upper shortwave trough will drop
southeast through Canada and bring more rain chances for early next
week.  This shortwave could support the formation of a deep longwave
trough, but the models diverge quite a bit at this point for our
sensible weather as the ECMWF differs in pushing a ridge in from
the west which would confine the trough to our northeast, and the
end result for us in this area would be different when compared to
some of the other medium range guidance such as the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Surface low will be moving across EAU and will be over northern
Lake Michigan Thursday morning. We`ll see breezy north winds
continue through the night, that will slowly decrease in strength
through the afternoon. Low clouds are starting to expand in the
deformation region to the northwest of the low and they will be
with us through the night. Biggest issue seen with guidance in the
deformation region is visibilities are not as low as what the LAMP
is showing and have improved those to VFR through the night.
HRRR/LAMP cig forecasts have been trending better, though the LAMP
may be a bit slow in clearing the MVFR clouds out tomorrow. Kept
TAFs toward the more pessimistic end of things for now, but
wouldn`t be surprised if cig heights improved faster than what we
have.

KMSP...Should see rain persist through about 10z. Clouds may
improve faster than what we Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible late. Wind NE at 10kt
Sat...MVFR/RA with IFR possible. Wind E at 10G20kt
Sun...MVFR early. Wind WNW at 15G25kt

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG



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