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000
FXUS63 KMPX 060014 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE 2-10" TUESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS PROBABLY
DETERMINING THE SKY COVER TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MN/WI FINDS ITSELF ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING
1000-850MB FLOW HAS VEERED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PAST 6-9 HOURS AND AS A RESULT...WE ARE BEGINNING TO ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COVER INTO SOUTHERN MN. WE THINK BY THE LATE
EVENING...MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST WITH WEST CENTRAL WI REMAINING CLEAR. THE RESULT SHOULD
BE DIFFERING TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH WI COOLING AT A MUCH FASTER RATE. BY SUNRISE...MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. WE THINK THE
SATELLITE OUT ACROSS /KS/NE/SD/ND WILL TODAY WILL BE A GOOD
REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TOMORROW LOCALLY. SO WE WENT
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER. THIS SHOULD STUNT THE WARMING
SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGARDLESS. THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT FRESH SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND THE WINDS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS TYPICALLY
AREN`T AS EFFECTIVE AT CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW...BUT VISIBILITY WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE REDUCED IN OPEN STRETCHES OF RURAL AREAS. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IN E-W ROADS SUCH AS I-90. WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS BETWEEN 27-33 KTS AT 950-925MB...WE HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KTS. DURING THE PREVIOUS
BLOWING SNOW EVENTS /THAT WERE MUCH COLDER/ MOST OF THE SNOW
MANAGES TO BLOW ACROSS ROADS AND NOT ACCUMULATE
...HOWEVER...TOMORROW WITH WARMER TEMPS AND WARMER PAVEMENT...IT`S
POSSIBLE MORE SNOW WILL STILL TO LOCAL ROADWAYS IN SOUTHERN MN. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS A CHANCE OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. AFTER FRIDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE AMT OF CLD CVR...FOG POTENTIAL AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME EVAPORATION OF THE SNOWPACK
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE KEY IS WHETHER ANY OF THE EVAPORATION
WILL PROMOTE DEEP MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AHEAD
OF THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW AND MODELS SEEM
TO INDICATE MOISTURE DEVELOPING FROM THE SFC...AND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE BEST LIFT AND STRONG WAA IS JUST ABV THIS MOISTURE
LAYER...BUT ENOUGH LIFT TO CAUSE CONCERN. ANOTHER NOTE IS
WHETHER DEW PTS WILL RISE ENOUGH...OR AT LEAST RISE ABV THE FREEZING
MARK ALLOWING FOR MORE MELTING. THIS MAY BE THE KEY AS TO WHETHER WE
GET ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO GENERATE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. AGAIN...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT
ENOUGH TO HAVE SLGT/CHC POPS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. GREATER MOISTURE
DEPTH OCCURS IN NW WI...WHICH SOME OF THE COUNTIES IN WC WI MAY HAVE
SOME SLEET...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD A VERY FAST MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE JUST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BUT IT QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE SE OF MPX CWA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. QPF AMTS WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. BUT ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS ON AREA
ROADWAYS IF NOT TREATED.

A QUICK COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY AFTN/SATURDAY...WILL MODERATE BY SUNDAY
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. AS TEMPS RISE ABV THE FREEZING MARK...AND
DEW PTS FOLLOW...THE CHC/S OF FOG DEVELOPING IS INCREASING. THE AMT
OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS MN IS HIGH...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF
OF THE COOLER AIR MASS FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AND NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHC/S ARE EXPECTED THRU WED...WE ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLOUDY
AND POSSIBLY FOGGY PERIOD. THEREFORE...TEMPS MAY REFLECT THE MORE
CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH NEXT WEEK WE HAVE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST....THE OVERALL MEAN PATTERN
ALOFT IS CONDUCIVE FOR LESS ARCTIC AIR...AND MORE MODIFIED PACIFIC
AIR. WE COULD BE DONE ON THE LAST SUBZERO TEMPS FOR THIS SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING...SETTING UP FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH FOG POTENTIAL ALSO. HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW
FOR MVFR CIGS THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

KMSP...BAND OF CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH HAVE JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED...THUS NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY AVIATION HEADACHES
TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING.
WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF