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000
FXUS63 KMPX 121718
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1218 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS A
BROAD AREA FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA.  LATEST
HRRR INDICATES RAINFALL BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES...TO MILLE LACS LAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE NEXT 2 OR SO
HOURS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BETTER WAA INDUCED LIFT AND MORE AMPLE
MOISTURE. MUCAPE LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY...AND FILTERED SUN UNDER JUST HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM AS LITTLE HAS
CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOR
TONIGHT...THE THEME WILL BE COOLING TEMPERATURES. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 850H WILL ENSUE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WE LIKE THE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE SUN-MON
TIME FRAME FOR POPS AND TEMPS. THE 12.00/06Z NAM STILL REMAINS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND QPF AXIS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SOUTHERN SHIFT FROM LAST NIGHT IS ENCOURAGING AND
GIVES MUCH US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI NEAR THE 850-700MB
FGEN. THE GFS LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHAT WE WERE SEEING LAST
NIGHT AT THIS TIME AND THE ECMWF MIGHT JUST BE A HAIR NORTH AND
NOW IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN...BUT WE STILL
HAVE CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
AND EVEN SOME SMALL POPS IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A DECENT CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT IF PRECIP REMAINS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS WITH THE
PRESENCE OF COLD ADVECTION. THE LIGHT RAIN MIGHT JUST COME TO AN
END BEFORE THE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH...SO WE HAVE ARE NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOW. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW
MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH
AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET. THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS ALSO BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE NAM/GEM NOW. SO...JUST
AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR NORMAL...WE
SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR HIGHS. BY
LATE NEXT WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW MAJOR DEVIATION
FROM ONE ANOTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTER PARTS ARE CLOSER TO
ONE ANOTHER. IT`S MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...SO WE HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE SPECIFICS ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 6 HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING/DEVELOPING FROM THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM MORNING
CONVECTION IN S MN. MVFR CIGS HAVE FORMED IN PORTIONS OF EC MN/WC
WI IN THE PAST HR. AS DWPTS REMAIN IN THE 40S...AND AND SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF AN HR OR
TWO OF MVFR CIGS FOR KSTC/KRNH/KEAU. UNTIL TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S... OR LOWER 60S...MIXING AND LCL/S WILL
BE LOW ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE MVFR CIGS. WILL LIKELY ADJUST TAFS
BASED ON CURRENT CONDS BY 1730Z...WITH AN HR OR TWO OF CIGS ARND
1.5 TO 2.0K. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE CIGS BLW 3K. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MPX TAF SITES...ONLY HOLDING NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER...ESPECIALLY
EAST/SE OF KAEL. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE/N THIS EVENING LOWER
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AFT 6Z WITH GUSTY N WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BLW 2K.

KMSP...

FIRST CONCERN IS MVFR CIGS AS CLDS HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE IN EC/SE
MN ARND 1.2 TO 1.5K. WILL HOLD ONTO THIS CIGS THRU 19-20Z...WITH
CIGS DISSIPATING OR RISING ABV 3.0K AS LCL/S INCREASE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THIS AFTN. EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NE THIS EVENING AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 7 KTS. THEN
AFT 6Z WINDS BECOME MORE N/NNW AND INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. CIGS
WILL REDEVELOP AND CONTINUE THRU THE SUNDAY AFTN. NO RAIN/SNOW IS
EXPECTED THRU 00Z/14.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN EVENING...CHC OF -RA/-SN WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5 TO 10 KT...BECG E/NE BY EVENING.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ025-026-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT