Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 280529
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1229 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of light wintry precipitation Friday.

- Rain & snow looking likely during the Sunday to Monday
  timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Despite plenty of sunshine, the highly reflective snowpack has
kept temperatures from warming any farther than the mid to upper
20s this afternoon. This lack of heating has also prevented the
expected stratocumulus from developing this afternoon, with
cloud cover across our area mainly limited to where there is no
snowpack across south- central MN & western ND. Stratus &
flurries across northern Minnesota is expected to continue
spreading southwards into central Mn & western Wisconsin as we
head into the evening, with sporadic snowflakes expected as the
cloud cover sticks around tonight. Clouds clear out by tomorrow
morning, with temperatures warming above freezing across much of
the area tomorrow afternoon & beginning to melt the snow on the
ground. As a result of this added low-level moisture, areas of
fog are possible Thursday night into Friday morning where winds
are light & skies remain clear.

A weak shortwave skirts along the US/Canada border Friday,
bringing likely chances for light precipitation to northern and
central Minnesota. Weaker ascent across southern Minnesota makes
it uncertain how far south the precipitation will extend with
this system. Temperatures look cold enough for snow, or even
freezing drizzle, Friday morning but anything still falling by
the afternoon will have switched over to rain as temperatures
warm into the mid 30s across western Minnesota to potentially
the upper 40s across southern Minnesota & west-central
Wisconsin.

Temperatures remain warm over the weekend with highs generally
in the mid to upper 30s across western Minnesota and mid to upper
40s elsewhere. Deterministic & ensemble guidance continues to
highlight good chances for precipitation sometime in the Sunday
to Monday timeframe, but timing spread leads to an extended
period of relatively lower (40-60%) PoPs for now. The surface
low & strongest forcing for this system does appear to be on a
more southerly track across southern Iowa & northern Missouri,
which could limit the northerly extend of the precipitation
outside of southern Minnesota & southwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures look cold enough for accumulating snow if the
system moves through during the cooler hours Sunday night &
Monday morning, bit otherwise should fall as rain during the
day.

Generally warmer & quieter weather is expected through the rest
of next week as upper level ridging begins building back into
the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Clear skies through Thursday, then increasing high clouds
Thursday evening. West winds will become east across western MN
Thursday evening, light and variable east.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-RASN. Wind E 15-20 kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind N to NE 5-10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff


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