566
FXUS63 KMPX 110612
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
112 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clusters of showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday.
  Predictability for any of these rounds is low, but heavy rain
  and gusty winds are possible with said clusters.

- Warm and mostly dry Saturday-Monday, with the next system to
  bring organized showers and storms arriving Tuesday-
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

This morning`s mesoscale convective vortex has spun its way into
southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, bringing
associated showers with it. Current satellite verifies this with
a large, picturesque, plume of high level cirrus on the
outskirts of the spinning low. Satellite also shows clearing in
western Minnesota behind the departing surface low, where
temperatures have rebounded into the low 80s. Stronger storms
are possible this afternoon, but should be mostly isolated to
south of the MN border in Iowa where a prominent CU field
developed through strong diurnal heating. Given the scattering
clouds (increase in heating), relatively high dewpoints
(60/70s), and increasing mid-level lapse rates (6-8 deg C/km),
any weak disturbance could trigger a thunderstorm. In this
unstable and minorly capped environment, outflows from any storm
that does develop could create another storm. They would be
disorganized in nature given the lack of winds. Overall, the
rain threat is greater than any storm threat across southern
Minnesota in association with the departing low.

Friday morning could look similar to today, with scattered
showers and storms possible in the early hours. A cold front
will sweep through later in the day, with more clusters of
storms possible. Again, these will be hard to pinpoint to any
specific location given the isolated nature of potential
development. Heavy rainfall is something we will be keeping our
eyes on over the next few days as PWATs remain elevated.

Saturday brings high pressure and mild temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s, with any precip moving out of western Wisconsin by
late morning. Sunday will be similar in that it will be mostly
uneventful, but temperatures will be back in the 80s with
afternoon dewpoints in the low 60s. Monday will again be
uneventful weather wise, but dewpoints will bring back the
mugginess with high temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the
lows 70s. The next larger scale system arrives Tuesday into
Wednesday with showers and storms likely in the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Iowa will be lit up like a Christmas tree most of the night, but
this activity will stay south of MN. Our big uncertainty
revolves around how widespread low stratus and fog become
tonight. We`re already seeing the beginnings of it over
southeast MN, but a dense canopy of anvil debris leads to a lot
of uncertainty with just how widespread the fog and stratus
become. Given all of that uncertainty, have hinted at potential
problems Friday morning with the FM groups that begin around
10z. After that, much of Friday looks dry, with a weak cold
front looking to be a focus for convection development after 20z
from central down toward southwest MN, though model agreement
on what an afternoon/evening round of storms may look like is
pretty poor, so only have prob30s for that potential at this
point.

KMSP...We will have to keep a close eye on developing
fog/stratus down around RST as this could drift MSPs direction
through the night, potentially impacting the morning push with
LIFR cigs and/or vis. Storm potential for Friday keeps drifting
farther out in time and it may not be until closer to 03z before
we see a shra/tsra threat at MSP. It`s certainly no guarantee
that MSP will even see rain with this fropa.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...MPG