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000
FXUS63 KMPX 262326
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Updated to include aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

It has been a sunny day across western and southern MN, but quite
cloudy across east central MN and western WI with cyclonic
circulation and a deep upper low spinning just ot the north of
Lake Superior. A few showers have also brushed Barron and Rusk
counties this afternoon. Some decrease in clouds along the edge
of the stratus and the wind area wide can be expected this
evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. Extensive cloud cover
will continue through Tuesday across much of Wisconsin.

On Tuesday, the upper low will begin to dive south across the
Great Lakes. A lobe of vorticity will spin southward on the
western edge of the trough and will likely kick off scattered to
widespread showers Tuesday afternoon east of a line from Little
Falls and St Cloud to Albert Lea. Amounts will be light, but the
shower threat has expanded westward a county or two from previous
forecasts, and with the tight cloud gradient expected, it is a
fairly significant change for some.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

The upper low will continue heading south into the Ohio Valley
midweek before stalling for the rest of the week. If this system
ultimately remains where it is currently progged, a prolonged
period of tranquil weather can be expected here with the surface
and mid level ridge axes overhead. It will delay the progress of
any weather system eastward, certainly on the meso to regional
scale. Therefore, kept pops quite low through the weekend until
the system is picked up by an approaching trough over eastern
Canada. PoPs begin to enter the picture Sunday night and Monday
with another long wave trough over the Rockies, but this
occurrence too may be delayed as is often the case at such
ranges.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

We`ll continue to deal with clouds on the backside of the upper
low to our east, and on Tuesday there will be some SHRA
accompanying things to around the I-94 corridor as a decent
shortwave rotates around the upper low. Otherwise, things look to
be relatively quiet through the period, with the gusty winds
settling down a bit in comparison to today.

KMSP...Main concern will be cloud cover and any SHRA Tuesday
afternoon into early evening, and whether we`ll see any MVFR
conditions. At this point didn`t include any visibility
restriction with SHRA potential, since things will be scattered
and it`s way too soon to have much confidence on exact
timing/location. As for ceilings, stayed relatively optimistic for
now, but it`s possible things could get down to around 3k ft AGL
for a time during the late afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tuesday overnight...MVFR possible. Northhwest wind 5 to 15 kt.
Wednesday...VFR. North wind 5 to 15 kt.
Wednesday night and Thursday. VFR. Northeast wind less than 10 kt.
Thursday night through Saturday...VFR. East wind less than 10 kt.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...