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000
FXUS63 KMPX 252335
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MECHANICAL MIXING DRIVEN BY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOGETHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT OF THE ISALLOBARIC WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE WIND CHILLS IN WISCONSIN WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT
WESTERN MN HAS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILLS OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH A
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS...AND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
ALBERTA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MIDWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN TROUGH FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE NORTHERN FEATURE APPEARS TO SUPPRESS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS FOR
NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ENDING ANY CHANCES OF SNOW...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST. HOWEVER...SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO THOSE SEEN
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR AREA
FROM CANADA. SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND EVENT...BEST PRECIPITATION/SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SINCE THE
NORTHERN TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS EVENT
THOUGH...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT FARTHER
NORTH...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER SNOW CHANCES ON TUESDAY FOR OUR
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SNOW CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING AND PREVALENT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. THE ONE
POTENTIAL FOR COMPLICATIONS COULD ARRIVE AROUND 17Z THURSDAY. A
COUPLE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE NAM HAS FREQUENTLY BEEN TOO
MOIST IN THE LLVLS...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF CIGS UNDER 3KFT
ARE BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT OUR WESTERN SITES /KAXN
AND KRWF/ AT 18Z THURSDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...DO THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SCT-BKN MENTIONS AROUND 17Z THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY AT KRWF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
NEARING 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER LOW...COULD SEE SCT-BKN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND
2500-3000FT BY 17Z THURSDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10KT.
SAT...VFR. WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 15KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ041>045-047>050-052>058-064-065-073.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...LS