Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
137
FXUS63 KMPX 032024
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
REACHED THE 70-DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRUE COOL ADVECTION
IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MN...BUT EVEN STILL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHWEST WI UP TO THIS POINT. THIS IS
NOT A HUGE SURPRISE GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOCALLY. ITS HARD TO GET MUCH RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 30S.
THERE ARE A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF WEAK SBCAPE /50-200 J/KG/ IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AND THE CU FIELD IS STARTING TO GET A
LITTLE MORE VERTICAL EXTEND. SO...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN WI. THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE EVENING AND THE RESULT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TOMORROW...BUT IS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
GIVEN HOW DRY THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CU IN WI TOMORROW. IN FACT...THIS WHOLE WEEK WILL
FEATURE DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND RAIN THREAT
DEVELOPING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LONGER TERM STARTS OUT COOL...MAINLY TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE
HIGH RETREATS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BUILD ON THE BACKSIDE...MAINLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP TO THE MID 30S OVER FAR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WE KEPT THE
PATCHY FROST WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER WEST CENTRAL WI
FOR THU MORNING AS THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST THREAT AREA FOR
THURSDAY. VIRGA MAY BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH
THE 70S...MAYBE A FEW LOW 80S INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL MN IF SUNSHINE
IS MORE PREVALENT.

THE WARM DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH THE MODELS
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A COLD FRONT WORKING TO NEAR OUR NW CWA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NICE THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WITH A S-SW WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ANTICIPATE A
GOOD MIX OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. 80S WILL BE
COMMON WITH A 90 DEGREE READING LIKELY OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AND COULD SEE SOME DRY VIRGA
SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTHWEST.
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH BEST LI`S TO MINUS 4 AND
MLCAPE TO 1000 PLUS J/KG INTO THE EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS CAPPED
WITH THE EC AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH THE FRONT.

THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTY N-NE
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CAA AND A NICE 7 MB 6
HOUR PRESSURE RISE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIMITED THE
-SHRA CHANCE INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER OVERALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY FOR THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER...AND FINE
WEATHER FOR MOTHERS DAY SUNDAY. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SLOW TO RETURN AND IS NOW
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON OVERALL CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT
READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PASS OVER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT IN WESTERN WI...WITH LESSER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BACK
TOWARD THE WEST IN EAST CENTRAL MN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE KEPT
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AT KEAU AND KRNH...JUST
SHOWERS IN AT KMSP AND NOTHING IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES. VFR IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
WE KEPT THE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR AROUND 4PM OR 5PM WHEN
THAT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AIRPORT...WINDS SHOULD ALSO
VEER FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND OR JUST BEFORE THIS TIME.
THUNDER ISNT IMPOSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORT...BUT THAT LOOKS MUCH
BETTER FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIVER IN WI. THERE ISNT ANYTHING
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NEAR THE AIRPORT YET...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD FORM SOMETIME BETWEEN 1-3PM NORTH/NORTHEAST
OF THE AIRPORT AND THEN MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME. THE BUILDING CUMULUS
OUT THERE NOW IS A PRECURSOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.