Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 290004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE EXTENT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER THIS EVENING AND THEN TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND FORCING
ACROSS THE CWA INTO MONDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOME MODERATE CUMULUS NOTED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL MN.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...BUT APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THAT THREAT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IN
THE EVENING.

THEN WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL SREF/NAM COMPROMISE...WHICH MOVES THE
FRONT THROUGH KMSP THROUGH 09Z-10Z.  THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
BEEN PROGGED TO BE STRONGER THEREBY OVERCOMING THE RIDGE ALOFT AND
FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS
AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWEST WI
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR DROPS OVER THE AREA
THEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SHOWER THREAT ENDING THROUGH 00Z TUE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE
ACTIVE...WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS BROAD
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN
PRECIPITATION-MAKERS...AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE ADVANCING WESTERN CONUS SYSTEM. MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH RESPECT TO TEMPORAL FACTORS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WHICH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST CENTRAL MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
SPREAD EAST TOWARD WESTERN WI DURING TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
MANITOBA AND THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP NEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY...AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE 50S...LIKELY UNDER STRATOCU
CLOUDS FOSTERED BY A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE 28.12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICT FAST
WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

COLD FRONT DROPPING INEXORABLY SOUTHWARD WITH SOME GUSTINESS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LAGGING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN BUT FILLING IN OVER THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT IS MOVING JUST A TAD
FASTER THAN HAD BEEN FORECAST...SO WILL NEED TO BUMP UP THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE WIND SHIFT AT TAF SITES BY AN HOUR OR SO. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM 07Z-12Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MN INTO PART OF WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN LIFTING.

KMSP...MAIN CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. OBSERVATIONS AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY BE
COMING IN A BIT FASTER SO HAVE BUMPED IT UP BY AN HOUR OR SO. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z BUT IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AS MVFR...BETWEEN 1000 AND 1600 FEET
AGL. SOME CROSSWIND COMPONENT EXPECTED TOMORROW MIDDAY BUT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW 15 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. MVFR/SHRA LIKELY TUE NIGHT. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S-SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA. WINDS W-NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TDK





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