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000
FXUS63 KMPX 231706
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE ON THE H5 CHART LAST NIGHT WAS THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER COLORADO...WHERE THE H5 HEIGHT MEASURED AT GRAND
JUNCTION REACHED THE LOFTY HEIGHT OF 6000 M. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN...WITH CONVERGENT NW FLOW NOTED
FROM MANITOBA INTO NW MN...HENCE THE 1028 MB SFC HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE MANITOBA LAKES THIS MORNING. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISS VALLEY
WHILE THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z THU.

FOR TODAY...NAM CU RULE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN
WI...TRAILING OFF TO LITTLE IF ANY CU FOR WRN MN. HOWEVER...WRN MN
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM UPPER WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE COLORADO RIDGE. IN PARTICULAR...THE RAP SHOWS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NODAK WORKING TOWARD WRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
DRY LOW LEVELS COURTESY THE 1028 MB HIGH WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
THE PRECIP IN THE MINOT AREA INTO MN...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. DID BOOST SKY COVER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THOUGH. H85 TEMPS WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM AROUND 12/13C...WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THIS
SUMMER AT PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 77 TO 81 DEGREE RANGE...SO NO BIG
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

TONIGHT...AS THE RIDGE WORKS ACROSS WI...RETURN FLOW WILL BE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION BOTH BLOSSOMING. LLJ ORIENTATION FAVORS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MO RIVER TONIGHT...MAKING ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS
SE SODAK...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 12Z THU...THOUGH WE
PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE TO WAIT VERY LONG ON THU TO START SEEING
PRECIP PUSH INTO THE UPPER MN VALLEY. OVER WI...WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LOW TO GO...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DID NUDGE LOWS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS RAW MODEL BLEND /BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK/...WHICH HAS LADYSMITH DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE FOG
POTENTIAL IS A BIT TOUGHER TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT CERTAINLY
IF WE DO SEE LOWS DOWN AROUND 50...SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER
EASTERN DAKOTAS AT DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MN
CWA DURING THE DAY AND INTO WESTERN WI BY EVENING AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE MOVES EAST. THE FA IS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 80 PLUS KNOT JET SEGMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INDICATED. BY THE END OF THE DAY...A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP...ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE...AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NEW SEGMENT ARRIVES FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE THEN PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF MN AND IA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS VEERS INTO IA AND
SOUTHERN MN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION
WHILE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH
PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS A CHARACTERISTIC OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVENTS. HENCE...CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INCREASE TO
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ESE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE FA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL POPS REMAINING. MUCH OF
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS NECESSITATES MORE
CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FROM
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY WILL BE SLOWLY RISING FROM AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S RESPECTIVELY. HIGHS WILL THEN TREND DOWN INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE REASON FOR THE EXTENDED COOL DOWN IS A DEEPENING
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST.
LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH A H5 CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEDNESDAY. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
ACCOMPANYING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OUTSIDE OF COMMON CLEAR SKIES - LIGHT WIND FOG AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU
TOMORROW MORNING FOR A A COUPLE HOURS...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AND AN OVERALL DRY SET OF TAFS. WE DO EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE KRWF...WHICH APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAIN. IT
APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTEND OF THE
RAIN AND ADD IT TO SITES IF NEEDED. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE
BETTER FOR RAIN AT THE REST OF THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDS THAT
HAVE VFR BASES. WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE IF SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE LIKELY IN
WESTERN MN START TO TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CONDS W/ TSRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT
10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF