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000
FXUS63 KMPX 241140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE EXITING EASTERN MN.
THIS GENERATED SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WAS ABLE TO CONTINUE
THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THIS MAY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND SPREADS MORE CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE CWA.  EARLIER THE
HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THIS WAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN MN.  THE 06Z
NAM HAS ONCE AGAIN LIFTED THIS FARTHER TO THE NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING INTO THE
NORTH AND WEST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY.  WARM START TO THE DAY...AND ANY SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BUMP TEMPERATURE ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY...AS MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST DEEPENS A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH.  THIS WILL PUSH THE SNOW
BAND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.  BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2-3 INCHES
APPEARS TO BE FROM AXN-MOX SOUTHEAST TO MKT AND AEL IN SC MN. THERE
MAY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS WARMER AIR RESIDES.  IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS
STRONGER FORCING AND COOLING TO THE AREA.  WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW
OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE CLIPPER WILL BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS SRN MN.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR
FALLING BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AT 00Z
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WAA ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10
TO 15 DEGREES BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WARM FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL AT THE MN/WI BORDER MONDAY WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARROWHEAD. A BATCH OF SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND OVER WI MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WAA. A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL MATERIALIZE MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES MOST OF
THE MN COUNTIES...WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE EAST OVER WI. HIGHS
COULD APPROACH 45 OR 50 NEAR THE SODAK BORDER WHILE REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 20S EAST OF U.S. HWY 53.

ANOTHER HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER...AND EVEN STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AIR IS STILL ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT EC SOLUTION. THICKNESSES IN
EXCESS OF 550 DM AND 925 MB TEMPS OF AT LEAST +5C OVER SRN MN
COULD BRING HIGHS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW COVER IN PLACE...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED WARMTH FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTHER
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT WITH THE RIDGING...SO MAINTAINED A
SIMILAR FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES FOR NOW WITH THE THOUGHT
IF THE EC DOES VERIFY...WE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL.

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS SET TO TAKE PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...EACH ONE BRINGING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
AIR. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE POSITIONED OVER HUDSON
BAY...AND LOBES OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE AROUND IT. BOTTOM LINE
IS WE MAY SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

IFR CIGS WITH SOME BR ACROSS WESTERN WI SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
THIS MORNING BUT MAY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR BECOMING MVFR MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IFR CEILINGS AND -SN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
23Z-03Z. COULD SEE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO OVER THE
SOUTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW PERIOD
STILL LOOKS TO BE 02Z-08Z OVER THE AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHEAST AFTER 10Z SUN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM W-SW THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO MORE E-NE DURING
THE NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS OVER SOUTHERN MN.

KMSP...
TIMING OF MVFR CIGS STILL A PROBLEM TODAY. SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 20Z. MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
DEVELOPING DURING THE COMING EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
CURRENTLY GOING WITH 1.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ENSUE AFTER 12Z SUN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. BECOMING MVFR CIG/-SN LATE CHC IFR CIGS.
WIND E-SE 5 KTS IN THE EVENING BECOMING S-SW 7-11KTS LATE.
MONDAY...VFR. CHC MVFR CIG EARLY. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 8KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE