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000
FXUS63 KMPX 070825
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AND THE SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THAT DO EXIST SIMPLY REFLECT A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. AS
WAS STATED SO ELEGANTLY IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE COLD ADVECTION
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SCOUR OUT THE PRECIP AND MAKE FOR A COOLER
START TO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2-3 WEEKS. IN
TERMS OF MELTING THE COLD/DEEP SNOW PACK...WE WILL LIKELY DUE A BIT
MORE DAMAGE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS /ACTUALLY GETTING UP NEAR FREEZING/. THE TIMING ISN`T
QUITE RIGHT TO OPTIMIZE THE WARMING ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SURGING WARM
SECTOR ARRIVES IN THE MORNING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALREADY BEGINS
NEAR THE NOON HOUR. EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE BACK-TO-BACK 40S FOR
HIGHS SUN-MON...THE SNOW PACK IS TOO EXTENSIVE TO EXPECT VISUAL
IMPACTS. PROBABLY JUST A LOT OF WATER IN LOCAL ROADWAYS DUE TO
MELTING SNOW AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THERE IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AFTER MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW PRECIP EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOTHING TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AND THUS HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RWF...MSP...AND EAU HAVE VFR CIGS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME WITH MVFR CIGS AT RNH/STC AND IFR AT AXN. THINK THE
LARGE AREA OF VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD FILL IN AND
LOWER LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVIDENCE OF THIS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN VERY RECENTLY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AROUND DAWN...POSSIBLY BRINGING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -FZDZ OR -FZRA. AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CIGS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE
UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
-FZDZ COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VFR
WILL RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ041>043-047-048.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF