Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 192344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Short term concerns are cloud and temperature trends...and remaining
threat of an isolated shower/thunder to the east early.

Lower clouds developed ahead of trough/moist axis and remained
stationary long enough to halt temperature rise to the east. The
southwest cwa warmed nicely in only filtered sunshine with high
clouds. Expect this cloud mass to drift east this evening and move
out/dissipate before 03z. Still have low threat of a shower/isold
thunder as it moves east. Temperatures shouldn`t cool off too
much overnight...with more mid/thicker high clouds to move in and
linger into Monday as the upper jet moves across the region.
Expect some thinning of clouds from north to south during the day
Monday...but the far south may be under the thicker clouds most of
the day. This will limit temperatures along with caa pattern
developing early.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The long term looks to get a bit more busier over the latter half
of the week as we see a system move northeast from the southern
Rockies toward the lower Great Lakes. In the big picture, a brief
flirtation with northwest flow at the start of the period will
give way to shortwave ridging by midweek. After that we`ll have
split flow across the western/central CONUS with a southern stream
wave helping to develop a surface low in the lee of the southern
Rockies which will move northeast Thursday into Saturday. The
deterministic guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and MPAS
follow a similar path with respect to the main features and
evolution described above. However, as would be expected there are
differences in timing and intensity of features, and the resultant
sensible weather in our area. The GFS has come around to a weaker
and more southern solution for later in the week, more consistent
with what the ECMWF and MPAS have been showing. The Canadian has
been waffling some, but is also now in that camp. With everything
pointing toward split flow and a southern wave driving the surface
low, rain looks to be the primary precipitation type across the
area when the bulk of the precipitation occurs Thursday night and
Friday, although some snow is likely to occur near the start and
end of things, particularly across the north. The ensembles
suggest a similar story, with the GEFS probability of 850 mb
temperatures greater than 0C running greater than 90% for most of
the area from Thursday evening through Friday evening, and it`s
probability that p-type is rain showing the same. Things do look
to dry out over the weekend as a weak surface ridge briefly builds
in before we start to get into good return flow by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions expected as dry front, which is on the door step
of STC at the start of the period, clears EAU between 6z and 8z.
This is a bit faster that what our going TAFs had, so did speed up
an hour or two the return of NW winds. Only cloud cover we are
anticipating is the band of 10k ft cigs over NODAK, these will
slide across the area tonight/Monday morning, but will remain at
or above 10k feet, with no precip expected.

KMSP...Front will slowly clear the field between 5z and 8z, but
will be marked by light and variable winds. Winds will eventually
turn to just east of north by Monday morning, before drifting back
northwest to end the TAF. High confidence we remain VFR and dry.

Tue...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kt.
Wed...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kt.
Thu...MVFR with -RA likely in afternoon. Wind SSE 10 kt.




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