Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Early this afternoon the center of a large surface high was
centered over the southeast corner of Nebraska, with clear skies
and below normal temperatures across southern MN and western WI.
Today demonstrated the importance of surface albedo this time of
year, as western MN and it`s snow-free ground saw temperatures
rise into the upper 20s. Not too far away, in places such as New
Ulm, Mankato, and the Twin Cities, the snow pack held temperatures
in check with afternoon readings ranging from 10 to 15 degrees.

The high pressure will slide to the east tonight with southerly
winds continuing through the night.  While it won`t necessarily be a
warm night with the cool airmass in place, overnight temperatures
will bottom out in the teens, near normal for this time of year.

Tomorrow a quick moving upper level shortwave will move through from
west to east, and weak isentropic lift will bring some light snow to
the area during the day.  Accumulation is generally not expected,
except in west central WI where up to an inch of snow could fall
later in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Not a lot has changed from the previous forecast with the Sunday-
Tuesday timeframe in terms of the evolution of the system and the
deep trough to the west.  We still expect some freezing rain to be a
possibility from the metro and south.  The highest ice potential is
along I-90, so it will be something to watch.  The snowfall
potential with this system is not real impressive. The initial
wave that ejects from the main longwave trough over the western
CONUS will move across North Dakota and northern Minnesota. It
could graze central MN from Alexandria to Mille Lacs with 1-3" of
snow. South of there, accumulation will go from less than an inch
to zero by the time you get south of St. Cloud.

So, Monday is the best potential for area-wide precip.  Thermal
profiles look warm enough at about 800H to melt snow into liquid
form, and with temperatures around 30 or colder, freezing rain still
looks likely.  The QPF did come down some from the previous shift.
There looks to be a few inches of snowfall accumulation across much
of central MN, but the chance for ice accumulation is more of a
concern, albeit a slight jog south with the evolution of the system
would keep our entire area in snow as the primary p-type.

Beyond that, temperatures will cool below normal once again for
midweek, with a warming trend looking more likely near the end of
the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

We will remain on the northern edge of surface high pressure
through the remainder of the afternoon with near 10 kts winds
becoming more southerly. Cloud cover will increase from the west
overnight with ceilings lowering to near MVFR by late Saturday
morning as a weak warm front passes through. In addition, there
will be a chance for flurries associated with the warm front and
ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will remain light and
southerly through much of the morning before the aforementioned
cold front increases wind speeds and shifts winds to out of the

KMSP...VFR conditions are forecast but the main concern will be
the near MVFR ceilings during the mid to late morning. There is
also a chance for flurries, but visibility is not expected to be

Sat night...VFR. Chc mvfr. Winds S 5 to 10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR -SN. Winds SE 10 kts becoming NE.
Mon...IFR/-SN Likely. Winds NE 10-20 kts.




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