Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 170834
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ISSUES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER WESTERN LAKES TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER ONTARIO...DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO STATE WITH LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. PASSING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
WI TO MINNEAPOLIS AREA. STRONGER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
INVERSION AROUND 925MB HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS NEGATED DENSE FOG THREAT. HAVE ALSO WARMED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME GIVEN CLOUD BLANKET. LOOK FOR A DRY DAY TODAY WITH
CLOUDS MIXING OUT THIS MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING UPPER LOW NOW OVER MT/CANADIAN
BORDER INTO THE WESTERN LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY EVENING.
INCREASING WAA AND MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST HEIGHT FALLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. PWATS ALSO CLIMBING TO 1.50 AND 1.80 INCHES COMBINED
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. AS
FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...PROGS SUGGESTS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH A POSSIBLE LFQ REGION PASSING OVER THIS SAME AREA
LATER TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WBZ
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO OVER 11000 FT ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING A
DIMINISHED THREAT OF HAIL.

PROGS DIVERT ON THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH FOR MID
WEEK. GEM MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOWLY DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PLAY A ROLE WITH PCPN ARRIVING LATER IN THE WEEK OR
WEEKEND. UPPER HEIGHTS SUGGEST TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE AFTER MID
WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MAY TRY TO LIFT
A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FOR MORE CHANCES OF RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL SCENARIOS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
AFTER MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WERE NARROWING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING...AND FEW/SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 800 AND 1400
FEET WERE ALSO NOTED. IT APPEARS MODELS ARE CORRECT IN LOW STRATUS
DECK AND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY
BE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH VISIBILITIES
AT OR LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. CANT RULE OUT DENSE FOG AT
OTHER LOCATIONS AS WELL. FOG AND LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD ERODE
BY OR AROUND 15Z WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED...MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHILE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL START OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN VEER EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





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