Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 140528
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1128 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Clear skies, southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, have combined to bring
another late March/early April weather day to the region. While
unusual for such a weather regime to be occurring, this week,
there will be many days like today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

A cold front will move into the area toward tomorrow morning,
resulting in wind switching to northwest. Cold advection will not be
strong, thus temperatures may rise to the exact same levels as
today, but with substantially more wind. There is no chance of rain,
though some mid clouds may brush the far south tonight, and some
stratocu may clip the northeast Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The only day near normal in our forecast will be Wednesday, as
the cold core of air aloft, works through the region during the
day. This should limit highs the 30s, near freezing northeast to
near 40 southwest.

Beyond Wednesday, another incredible warm up is on the way.
Temperatures aloft will rise due to downslope over a broad region
east of the Rockies. This will sustain our warm up all the way into
early next week, before a transition to more amplified flow brings
moisture to the region. For now, forecast  will see the first pops
following the dry period from now forward, on Sunday night. Monday
into Tuesday could see widespread rain, but with this pattern of
high amplitude, we will need to watch to see if the system slows
down, and results in another few dry and warm days.

In any case, highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s are forecast for
Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. That is flat out remarkable
given that is unedited guidance. In the end, if we are not cloudy,
those numbers may be conservative.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast cycle with only
high level clouds expected. A few forecast models suggesting low
level clouds with the passage of the cold front Tuesday morning
appear overdone. Light southwest to west winds will veer to the
northwest and increase to 15 kts with the frontal passage Tuesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Sheets



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