Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 121148
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
648 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Clear skies and high pressure have allowed temperatures to bottom
out in the 50s across the area this morning. Would not be
surprised if some areas see the 40s this morning right before
sunrise. This high pressure is the main weather producer for the
short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

A beautiful Saturday is expected today. This morning a 20 knot H85
jet will bring sustained winds near 10 kts with gusts in the
teens, this with the high pressure will lead to beautiful
sensible weather day. Highs in the 70s to low 80s are expected
with near clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The long term remains quiet through Sunday, followed by weakly
forced shower and isolated thunderstorm chances for late Sunday
night and Monday. POPs continue to be forecast very low given a dry
air mass in place initially, and very weak forcing from the
positively tilted opening wave aloft.

After the weak system passes by Monday morning, a dry and pleasant
period should extend through Tuesday evening, as a progressive high
pressure works through. On the return flow behind this high
pressure, models continue to show a robust round of isentropic lift
with convection. The placement of storms is greatly varied in model
depiction from mainly north of Highway 34 via the GEM, to mainly
south of Highway 34 via the 00Z EC, to the everybody gets hit GFS.
At this point, likely POPs seem warranted for late Tuesday night and
Wednesday, followed by slight chances into Thursday and Friday,
which may be dry if 00Z guidance is correct on a more progressive
front.

Temperatures continue to be forecast in the lower to mid 80s for
most of the week over the northeastern 2/3rds, while the southwest
which is in moderate drought, will see highs in the mid to upper 80s
based on drier soils.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

VFR conditions expected today at all taf sites with light winds
being the main aviation concern. Overnight tonight could see MVFR
vsbys near 12Z Sunday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gibbs



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