Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 121746
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...18z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

High clouds from the remnants of "Irma" are overspreading the region
as of 2 AM CDT. Temperatures are mostly in the lower 50s with light
northeast winds. Little change is expected the next 24 hours with high
clouds, mostly in the southeast gradually dissipating later tonight
into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average with
little sensible weather issue. High clouds extent in the southeast
may impact highs and lows by a couple degrees biggest issue. Overall,
highs and lows should be generally within 3 degrees of forecast, especially
northwest 1/2 to 2/3 of the region.

Today...Mostly sunny northwest with partly sunny skies with some periods
of a veiled sunshine in the far southeast. Winds will continue to be
light northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Highs should be mostly within 3 degrees
of 80 degrees today with the warmest in the northwest and coolest in
the southeast due to clouds.

Tonight...little change with mostly clear skies northwest to partly
cloudy skies in southeast of high clouds. Light northeast winds to
continue with lows mostly in the lower 50s with some mid 50s in the
southeast with thicker clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Forecast focus on warming temperatures with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms this weekend.

Wednesday through Saturday:  The remnants of "Irma" will push
northward into the OH valley and then lift rapidly into New England
by the end of the week. This will allow an upper level trough to
deepen in the western United States. This in turn should pull warmer
and increasingly moist air out of the central/southern Plains. Highs
will warm well into the 80s by Friday and Saturday, with dewpoints
pushing into the lower 60s by the weekend. Thus, the pattern will
start changing to more of a summer-like regime.

Saturday night through Monday:  At least some chances for showers
and thunderstorms arrive as low pressure organizes in the northern
Plains. This will send a cold front eastward across the dvn cwa
Saturday night into Sunday.  The GFS is more optimistic with rain
showing the front to stall in our area into the middle of next week.
However, the ECMWF is much drier so this remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

High pressure/subsidence fields north of Irma remnants will
maintain another VFR TAF cycle through Wed morning. Just varying
amounts of passing high clouds off Irma circulation, and east to
northeast winds of 5-10 KTs going light overnight. Will not put
any VSBY reduction in the TAFS for now, but a low chance of some
fog late tonight where winds go calm and cirrus very thin mainly
toward/in the VCNTY of CID and DBQ.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...12



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