Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 140451
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A ROUGHLY 75 MILE WIDE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM NE KS...THROUGH NW IA INTO NW WI APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION
AROUND THE 800 MB LEVEL AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KOMA SOUNDING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING AN ELEVATED
WARM FRONT LINKED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MANITOBA. WHILE THE LATEST RAP RUNS HAVE MOISTURE DEPICTED AT
THIS LEVEL MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...THE
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
OVERALL DEPICT A WEAKENING TREND...SUGGESTING THIS DECK WILL BREAK
UP AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BRING IN THESE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN IA BY SUNRISE. EVEN SCATTERED CLOUDS
SHOULD LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND FROST AND HAVE REMOVED
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST...BUT WILL LEAVE IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE TIMING SUGGESTS SKIES WILL BE AT
LEAST MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNRISE. WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS RUNNING SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...FORECAST
MINS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH A FEW MID 30S IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VALLEYS...LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

LARGE AND SEASONABLY QUITE COOL EARLY FALL HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST
ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NEXT SHORT WAVE
TO IMPACT REGION IS STILL 48 HOURS AWAY AND JUST ENTERING NW CONUS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTING LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS...IF ANY. LOTS
OF SW MONSOON MOISTURE WITH NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF MEXICO MAY
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AREA AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST EVENT...IN A WEEK
OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD TO EXCELLENT. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. STRONG VERIFICATION OF PERSISTENCE
AND LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES PROGGED PER LOCAL TOOLS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST AREAS NEXT 24 HOURS.

TONIGHT...FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TO ALLOW FOR BL DECOUPLING
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING IN LOW LYING PLACES. MINS PER
LOCAL TOOLS HAVE LOWERED 1 TO 2 DEGREES WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY STILL
A DEGREE OR SO STILL TOO MILD. LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO BREAKING OR
TYING LOW RECORDS AT BRL/MLI.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND FEW/SCT COVERAGE OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY. HIGHS
WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AND MODIFICATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S SW SECTIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS ON THE NEXT RAIN EVENT ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY
DRY EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS WHICH WILL SQUEEZE
OUT THE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WITH ROOM TO RAISE THEM EVEN FURTHER. THE RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO EASTERN IA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
SPREAD OVER ALL THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. I WILL WALK OUT THE RAIN IN
OUR EASTERN CWA SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.15 INCH IN THE NORTH...AROUND 2 TENTHS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND UP TO 1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ARE PROBLEMATIC ON MONDAY WITH AN ALL-DAY RAIN OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO 10C OVER THE CWA.
WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS SEEMS
TOO WARM BASED ON LOCAL TECHNIQUES...AND HAVE LOWERED READINGS TO
NEAR 60. THIS STILL MAY BE TOO WARM AND HIGHS IN THE 50S MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS ALL DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE AS ECMWF BRINGS A ZONAL
FLOW INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
EDGE OF A BUILDING HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS REMAINS
DRY WITH A SHARPENING TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AN AXIS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 T0 6000 FEET
MAY MOVE INTO ESPECIALLY THE CID...DBQ AND MLI BETWEEN 4 AND 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH LIGHT SE TO SOUTH WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WELL INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 14...

MOLINE.........39 IN 1974
CEDAR RAPIDS...36 IN 1929
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1974
BURLINGTON.....38 IN 1974

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS






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