Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDVN 310829
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...GOES EAST 11-3.9 MICRON IR DIFFERENCE LOOP OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK ERODING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. MUCH HIGHER UP...A BAND
OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE NOTED MOVING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF
THE STRATUS AND HAVE NOW REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LOCAL METAR OBS WERE REPORTING NNE/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE THE BACK EDGE
OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS WAS STILL LINGERING. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER
40S ON AVG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SET UP A NICE DAY FOR E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HOLD DOWN INTO THE 40S MAKING IT FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REACH NEAR 850MB
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED OUT OF THE ENE AT 20 KTS...SO EXPECT
STEADY NE WINDS AT THE SFC BETWEEN 12-18 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY OVER 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTN.

TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHTER THAN IT WAS SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL DO NOT SEE SFC WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLING...RATHER
REMAINING NEAR 5 KTS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE
STARVED UPPER DISTURBANCE. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR FAR NE IOWA/NW ILLINOIS TO THE UPPER
40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A WARMING TREND THEN FOLLOWS...SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL READINGS MID TO LATE WEEK. MODELS DEPICT
A DEVELOPING BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CONTINUES TO
PRESENT A CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. OVERALL...THE SETUP
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EAST WINDS
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 60S. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT LENDS SUPPORT TO THE COLDEST GUIDANCE MINS FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

A REX TYPE BLOCK THEN DEVELOPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST TUE INTO WED...WHERE MODELS DEPICT A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EASTWARD...SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OMEGA TYPE
BLOCK BY LATE WEEK WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE PUMPING UP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL
INITIALLY KEEP THE CHANNEL OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE FOCUSED WELL
TO THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. WITH THIS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE
SETUP...HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY AND DELAY POPS...AND NOW HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NW WED NIGHT INTO THU. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ARE KEPT FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHEN RETURNING DEEPER MOISTURE MAY MEET UP WITH RIDGE
TOPPING SHORTWAVES AND POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER THE
REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RISE
FROM THE 70S TUE AND WED...TO MAINLY THE LOWER 80S THU THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE MINS RETURN TO MOSTLY 60S LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE RISING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF TERMINALS IN EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS PLACES VFR WEATHER
OVER THAT REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. COOL TEMPERATURES...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONSISTENTLY NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...ERVIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.