Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 220825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
325 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

A progressive, broad and sharp trough across the central U.S. is
pushing a cold front and associated rain axis through eastern Iowa
into northwest Illinois this morning. Stability is sufficient for
isolated thunder but light to moderate rain predominates. Temps
are unseasonably mild for this time of night, though lower 40s are
currently being observed in northwest Iowa.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Passage of the cold front today will mark a transition to more
seasonal temperatures while also dropping light to moderate rain
across the area. Rain should gradually end with passage of the
850mb front by mid day west of the Mississippi River and by early
evening in northwest Illinois.

Much cooler temperatures are expected overnight with readings
widespread in the 40s, especially if clouds clear overnight as
currently expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Colder weather will settle in over the area this week as active
northwest upper flow becomes established over the Central U.s.

A series of short waves dropping southeast out of Western Canada
this week will drag increasingly colder airmasses into the central
U.S.  The first wave will move through the region Monday/Monday
night.  Moisture ahead of the wave will be limited with this wave,
but forcing may be strong enough to squeeze out some light rain over
the north Monday afternoon and Monday night.  Temperatures Monday
and Monday night should be close to late October normals with highs
in the low to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.  Tuesday will
be the regions first real taste of fall weather with temperatures
struggling to climb to around 50 and brisk northwest winds. Near
normal temperatures will return for mid week ahead of a more
significant short wave progged the move through the Central u.s. by
the end of the week.  This late week system will have much colder
air associated with it sending lows into the 30s and highs in the
40s.  There is some disagreement among the operational models with
respect to the placement of the strongest forcing.  The GFS favors a
wetter solution for our region taking a more southern track while
the ECMWF moves the better forcing through the north Central U.S.
Either solution though has low level temperatures cold enough to
support the mention of a rain/snow mix for Friday night and Saturday


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A large area of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms is moving
across the terminals overnight as a cold front passes. Periods of
mostly MVFR conditions can be expected, mainly with any precipitation
into the morning hours. Winds will shift from south to the west and
northwest at 5 to 15 mph by 3 AM at all the terminals. Skies will become
VFR with fair skies of high clouds by or before the afternoon hours.




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