Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 241819
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO EARLY THIS AFTN AS A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK
OF SATURATION ABOVE 800 MB WITH THE TOP OF THE STRATUS DECK ONLY
AT -8 C. IN CLOUD ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD BE REINTRODUCED NEAR OR
AFTER 21Z AS THE 800-700 MB LAYER SATURATES ONCE AGAIN THANKS TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/STRIP OF VORTICITY OVER CENTRAL IOWA
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE -FZDZ AND
TRANSITION THE PRECIP BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR THE -FZDZ WILL BE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO JUST NORTH OF
BURLINGTON AND POINTS EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1 INCH OR SO. WEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST OVER 35 KTS RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAPIDLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

982 MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY STILL DEEPENING AND ROLLING UP ACRS LOWER
MI...WITH WESTERN SIDE DEF ZONE PRECIP SWATHS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST TO THE MS RVR. WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING AS IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT STRONG/NEAR ADVISORY WINDS COMPLICATING
MATTERS WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING...EXCEPT AFTER COORDINATING WITH
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OFFICES...WILL EXTEND THE END TIME OF THE
EASTERN GROUP TO 06Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT OF SECONDARY WRAP AROUND DEF
ZONE SNOWS INDUCED BY SECONDARY WESTERN GRT LKS ORBITING LOW/UPPER
TROF...AND ONGOING BRISK WINDS ROTATING DOWN OUT OF WI AND ACRS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THE SOUTH HALF OF THIS ADVISORY GROUP/INCLUDING THE I80
CORRIDOR/ WILL STILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER AT THE
ORIGINAL 03Z END TIME. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL GET MOST OF
IT/S ACCUMS FROM NOW THOUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY JUST HAVE
FLURRIES THEN IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROFILES STILL SUPPORT RE-STRENGTHENING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON TO 20-32 MPH
SUSTAINED...AND GUSTS AT LEAST INTO THE 40-43 MPH RANGE. WIND TO COME
DOWN TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME
DRIFTING AND LOW BASED BLOWING SNOW IN AREAS THAT CAN GET 2-3 INCHES.
SOME CONCERN THAT WARMED UP AND WET GROUND WILL EAT AWAY AT
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TOTALS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO OCCUR AT
12Z-13Z...WITH STEADY TO SLOW FALL TRENDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA...TO AROUND 20/THE LOW 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

OVERALL...GENERAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS CURRENT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MON MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH UP TO NEAR
AN INCH SOUTH OF I80...1-2 INCHES FROM I80 UP TO MANCHESTER IA...
CLINTON AND STERLING IL. TO THE NORTH OF THAT LINE...2-3 INCHES UP
THROUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN IA INTO NW IL. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACRS
NORTHERN JO DAVIESS AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES WHERE SOME 3+ INCH
AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS BLEND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED MONDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LINGERING MINOR DIFFERENCES IN QPF
PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. GENERAL 1 TO PERHAPS 2 INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO BOOST POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SUBSTANTIAL...THE QUICK SHOT OF SNOW DURING PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD
NOT BE WELCOME.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A COLD AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. BASED ON THE PERSISTENT ECMWF...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH ON FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING
TEMPS LATE WEEK...INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER ON
SUNDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

GENERALLY MVFR IS FORECAST INTO TONIGHT FOR CIGS BETWEEN 1-3 KFT AGL.
AREAS OF STEADY SNOW HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BUT PERIODS OF
-FZDZ WILL IMPACT KCID AND KMLI THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21Z...AFTER
WHICH A CHANGE OVER TO -SHSN IS EXPECTED. KBRL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME -FZDZ BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOWER THERE. AT KDBQ...ALL
SNOW IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE GUSTY W WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH





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