Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 302029 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE













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