Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 290456
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1156 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A WEAK WAVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CEDAR RAPIDS AREA TOWARD NEWTON IA...WITH A FRONT UNDULATING
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL IL/INDIANA. LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT OFF
UPPER LOW ACRS THE IA/MN BORDER PRODUCING AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EAST-
NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW OFF LK MI KEEPING A LID ON TEMPS IN THE 40S
ALONG HWY 20...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A FEW BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TONIGHT...PASSING UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OUT OF LOWER CLOUD DECKS...TO FESTER
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LINGERING BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY THRU MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS WITH A BIT OF A WANE TREND THRU 05Z. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
IN LLVL CONVERGENT ZONES ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR ANY TEMPORARY
CLEARING HOLES IN THE OVERCAST OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ADD TO THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FETCH WILL COOL ADVECT
AND DRY DOWN SFC DPTS OVERNIGHT...HELPING TEMPS MAKE IT DOWN INTO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA/HWY 20
CORRIDOR AND IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE CLOUD COVER BLANKET...THERE
WOULD BE COLDER TEMPS AND PATCHY FROST CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS.

FRIDAY...BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE LOBE GETTING SQUEEZED ACRS THE
MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...AND ONGOING INHERENTLY DRY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW FETCH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME CLOUD DECAY FOR AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING.
DESPITE SOME LATE APRIL INSOLATION...WILL STILL PLAY IT
CONSERVATIVELY WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUT IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS STUBBORN...
ADVECTS IN OFF LK MI...OR REFORMS/THICKENS DIURNALLY ACRS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THESE FCST HIGHS WILL BE TOO MILD.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND...THEN
NEXT WEEK FEATURES A STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT E-NE...SENDING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
EAST-NE ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY DELAY SATURATION AND RESULTING SHOWERS A BIT LONGER THAN
MODELS DEPICT AS UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS IS REFLECTED WITH
LOWER POPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT IF
THE FRONT STAYS AS FAR SOUTH AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED...EVEN THIS
LOOKS GENEROUS. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS...STRONG E-NE WINDS OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE 50S...IF NOT UPPER 40S IN NW IL. SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE AND FILLING SURFACE LOW PASSING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY...WILL KEEP A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTH AND SE WITH UPPER TROUGHINESS HANGING OVER THE REGION
SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY. CONSENSUS HAS
HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT BRISK NE WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER RATHER COOL DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME FORM OF NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK...AND LIKELY DRY...FRONTAL PASSAGES AROUND TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY THU. PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
MAY PRESENT A THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING...
WHERE THE COLDEST GEM MODEL HAS LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE
60S MONDAY...REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS TUE AND
WED...THEN LIMITED TO THE 60S AGAIN FOR THU WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOWEST CONDITIONS
WITH IFR VISIBILITIES/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KCID/KDBQ. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIFT FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM SOUTHWEST
BUT RAIN EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



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