Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 202000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Extensive cloud cover over the cwa and even a few showers grazed
our far sw counties this morning, due to an upper level trough
pushing across the area. Subsidence in the wake of the trough was
allowing for clearing skies across eastern IA this afternoon, with
this clearing trend spreading southeast. This has been a very cool
day with afternoon temperatures only in the 50s. Adding to the
chill has been northwest winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph.

Ridge of high pressure extended from MN to west TX and this is where
skies were clear.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Headlines...a frost advisory is in effect for the entire dvn cwa
overnight into early Friday morning.

Tonight: Ridge of high pressure will push into the dvn cwa with
clear skies and light winds. This should allow for radiational
cooling dropping minimum temperatures to the mid 30s, with some
favored cold spots dipping into the lower 30s. Therefore, I will
mention areas of frost, but locations where winds go calm there
would be widespread frost.

Friday: High pressure will be in control of our weather providing
sunny skies but continued cool temperatures. Afternoon highs will
again be only in the 50s, but at least the winds will be rather
light from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Main concern for the long term are the chances for showers and
thunderstorms midweek as the GFS and ECM narrow on large scale
dynamics of the system.  A low pressure is prog to track across the
CWA and bring with it showers and thunderstorms.  Between this
period high pressure is the name of the game.

H25 jet into the area Friday night along with H5 wave will help to
keep winds up across the area.  This will likely limit frost to the
extreme NE CWA.  H5 ridging builds into the area as we warm up
through the weekend.  The weekend looks to be gorgeous with clear
skies and warming temps.

Next week, the flow turns to the southwest and attempts to advect
warmer more humid air into the CWA.  Similar solutions in the mass
fields between the GFS and ECMWF depict a dynamic forecast through
the midweek.  H25 exit region should move into the area as a wrapped
up H85 and sfc low track across the area. H5 diffluence supports
convection across the CWA. At this time, low level moisture return
looks to be suspect with a high centered over the Gulf should shut
off the flow of moisture. Regardless, ample shear should exist for
strong storms if the CAPE materializes.  This will need to be
watched for future forecasts.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

MVFR cigs this afternoon becoming VFR by late afternoon/early
evening. Then VFR with SKC tonight into Friday morning as high
pressure builds into the area from the west. Winds will be
northwest to north 10 to 20 knots this afternoon, then less than
10 knots tonight and Friday.


IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Bureau-Carroll-
     Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Clark-Scotland.



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