Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 260826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS


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