Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 130428
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1128 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

High pressure resulting in a great August weekend for outdoor
activities. Afternoon temps across E Iowa/NW Illinois are in the 70s
to lower 80s and the humidity is comfortable with dewpoints in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

This Evening and Tonight

Similar to last night, with high pressure over the Upper Midwest,
lows are forecast in the lower to middle 50s on avg. Shallow and
localized radiation fog is possible in low-lying areas and along
river valleys late tonight into early Sunday morning. Widespread fog
is not expected, but it could be locally dense where it does form.

Sunday

No significant changes from today (Saturday) to tomorrow. Forecast
highs are in the mid 70s far north to lower 80s southwest and there
is no chance for rain through the afternoon. However, there will be
an upper low over Minnesota and cold front through NW Iowa.
Convection in this vicinity should result in periods of mid to upper-
level clouds downstream over E Iowa/NW Illinois. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

High pressure retreating to the east and the onset of warm advection
will lead to a warming trend early in the week. The best chance for
rain this week remains centered on Wednesday into Wednesday
night, followed by near normal temperatures and low chances for
rain late in the week into next weekend.

Sunday night into Monday: The upper low over western ND this
afternoon passes by as an open wave to the north late Sunday night
into early Monday. With better forcing to the north, limited
moisture return and the lack of any low level convergence, slight
chances for thunderstorms are kept mainly along and north of the
highway 20 corridor. During the day, low chances are kept across the
north with slight chances into the western portion of the forecast
area, where an advancing weak surface front may trigger afternoon
convection. Low level warm advection should return temperatures
closer to early August norms from around 80 north to mid 80s
south.

Tuesday could potentially be even warmer with model consensus
showing highs in the mid to upper 80s across the dry soils in the
south, and low 80s elsewhere. Humidity levels continue a day to
day increase as dewpoints creep back into the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday: Low pressure passing to the north sends a warm front
northward through the region for high chance to likely pops during
the day. Conceptually, based on the indicated frontal position,
these chances look greater mainly north of I-80, but the blended
approach in this part of the forecast warrants more evenly
distributed probabilities for precipitation across the entire
forecast area. A trailing cold front is shown pushing through late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, possibly triggering
another round of showers and at least isolated thunderstorms.

High pressure then follows for Thu and Fri for mainly dry conditions
with near normal temperatures. A weak system is advertised around
Friday night, followed by another round of high pressure Saturday.
There are slight chances for rain across the north to  account for
this system, but there is low confidence in the timing of the system
and any associated precipitation coverage this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Expect passing high clouds and a light wind overnight. There is a
low probability of periods of MVFR fog, mainly at KDBQ/KMLI, but
have left out of TAFS. VFR conditions continue through the day
Sunday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Sheets
AVIATION...RP Kinney



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