Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 201957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
257 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

A mesohigh from a slowly rotating vort max was located over far
southwestern portions of the CWA. This slowly moving vort max was
leading to extremely localized rainfall across Scotland county
today. Another vort max was heading south across the upper Great
Plains this afternoon. This vort max should help to clear the slow
moving vort out of northern Missouri in the short term.


ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Main forecast concern for the short term is how long the vort max
over Scotland county will reside and how much rain will fall from
it. With drier air just to the north of this wave, rain has been
slow to move north. After this, clear skies and warmer temps are
forecast for Saturday.

Northerly flow tomorrow along with a drier airmass could lead to
dewpoints dropping across the area during Saturday afternoon. This
could also lead to higher highs tomorrow. This will need to be
watched overnight and into tomorrow. Otherwise, from a sensible
weather standpoint, tomorrow looks to be perfect! Highs in the
70s, sunny and low relative humidity!

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Warmer and more humid trend with daily chances for showers and
storms next week.

Long term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average
with daily chances of precipitation next week the main issue.

Overview...initialization and verification are good to excellent
with little discernible discrepancies. Run to run variance and
moisture budget issues suggest gfs too moist next week with a 70/30
blend of hi-res ecmwf to gfs better capture daily
pops next week.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Fair skies and a warming trend
with slowly higher dewpoints as south winds kick in.  Mins in the
lower 50s for Sunday AM and mid/upper 50s Monday AM.  Highs Sunday
should be around 80 degrees mostly locations with a light south

Monday through Friday...Southwesterly flow and increasing dewpoints
to result in daily chances of showers and thunderstorms...mostly in
the afternoon and evening hours.  Pops mostly in the 30 to 50
percent range.  Rainfall by Friday evening should total most
locations 1 to 2 plus inches with when the main issue.  Modest
instability suggested with MUCAPE generally 500 to 1500 J/KG and
enough shear for some isolated to possibly widely scattered severe
storms possible with enough forcing.  No major short wave suggested
with any severe to be straight line winds generally around 60 MPH and
hail around quarters or at the lower end of intensity.  Highs should
tend to range in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows mostly in the
lower 60s.  This would tend to be slightly above normal for late


ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period as winds slacken
today and tonight and then turn north tomorrow. Clouds should move
out of the area tonight and lead to clear skies across the area


.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Nichols
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