Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 162117
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
317 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

18Z surface data has a warm front running from southwest Minnesota
into west central Illinois. Dew points were in the teens and 20s
ahead of the front with 30s across the Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Near record or record warmth. Refer to the climate section for
specific numbers.

Quiet and dry with unseasonably mild temperatures will be seen
across the area for the next 36 hours.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The main forecast concerns are chances of precipitation and
temperatures through the period. Models are in good overall
agreement with the basics of the pattern.

Split flow aloft will continue to dominate weather concerns through
the long term.  The northern and southern streams will both
influence the region through the period. A series of slow moving
closed lows will move through the southern stream while shortwave
energy moves through the northern stream. Temperatures will remain
well above normal through the period with near record high
temperatures possible Saturday and potentially again on Monday. Low
temperatures will be near normal high temperatures for these dates.
The fly in the ointment for temperatuers is whether or not there
will be any cloud cover and potential precipitation but for now,
with the exception of Monday, conditions seems favorable for well
above normal temperatures.

Strong warm and moisture advection will coincide with deep mixing
across the the area on Monday to provide gusty southwesterly winds
to mix down slightly warmer air from aloft. Lift and moisture will
arrive after 00 UTC Tuesday with potential warm advection wing
precipitation Monday morning across our north and west. Expect rain
showers with this system with maybe some isolated thunder south of
Highway 20. the limiting factor for precipitation this period will
be the strength of the lift associated with system.  Right now the
system is not significantly strong.

This system quickly exits to the east Tuesday morning with another
piece of weak shortwave energy later in the day on Wednesday and
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions will be seen through 00z/18 as a dry warm front
moves through the area.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record highs for February 17th...

Burlington.......67 in 2011
Cedar Rapids.....66 in 1981
Dubuque..........61 in 1981
Moline...........63 in 2011

Record highs for February 18th...

Burlington.......65 in 1913
Cedar Rapids.....65 in 1981
Dubuque..........61 in 1981
Moline...........63 in 1913

Record highs for February 19th...

Burlington.......70 in 1930
Cedar Rapids.....68 in 1930
Dubuque..........63 in 1930
Moline...........69 in 1930

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08



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