Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 180442
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM WISCONSIN INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN WITH AN 850MB COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WITH CLEARING NOW OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONTS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATE SPRINKLES...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY DRY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS CLOUDS.

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
IF THIS SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A BIT MORE
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. SOME MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM CLOUDS
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA BEING CLOUDY BY SUNRISE. ONE POSSIBLE PROBLEM
WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA. IF THIS HOLE MAINTAINS AND/OR GROWS...MUCH OF THE AREA
MAY SEE PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BREAK UP THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE BETTER FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IS NORTH OF THE AREA SO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OCCURRING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE VERY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST
FLOW. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND
AN OCCASIONAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GULF IS
CUT OFF AND MOISTURE WITH EACH SYSTEM IS MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH A FEW
ERRANT SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
IT WILL BE DRY.

THE DRY AIR AND SUNSHINE WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE GROUND. THUS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK DIURNAL RANGES MAY SLOWLY INCREASE OVER TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

BROAD CLOUD DECK WITH VFR CIGS STILL AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES.
TEMPORARY CLEARING AREA MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY MORNING BY AN MVFR LAYER. THIS MVFR LAYER WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST AROUND MID
DAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS UNDER 15KTS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DMD






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