Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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897
FXUS64 KEWX 142034
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
334 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The latest water vapor satellite loop shows a plume of moisture
stretched from northern Mexico across southwest Texas and into far
northeast Texas. This plume of moisture is captured well by looking
at model-derived 700-500 Theta-e values. The models agree in keeping
this Theta-e ridge axis confined to the southern Edwards plateau and
adjacent portions of the Rio Grande plains through the short term
portion of the forecast. This should result in mainly isolated
showers and thunderstorms for areas mainly north of a Del Rio to
Rocksprings line. Coverage of showers and storms should be fairly
low, so we will keep rain chances in the 20-30% range in the latest
forecast. Otherwise, dry and hot conditions will continue across
south central Texas. Daytime highs will range from the mid 90s to
near 100, with overnight lows in the 70s. We may be close to Heat
Advisory levels on Tuesday for areas along and east of I-35 as
southeast winds will not allow much lowering of afternoon dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The heat will continue through the long term portion of the forecast.
On Wednesday, we may very well be near Heat Advisory levels along and
east of I-35 as afternoon dew points will likely not decrease much
given continued southeast flow in the low-levels. Hi-res models
continue to suggest the sea breeze could become active and we will
mention a low chance for showers and thunderstorms for the coastal
plains and Highway 77 corridor. In addition, we will continue a low
chance for showers and storms across Val Verde county, where a mid-
level moist axis will persist. For the remainder of the forecast
period, the mid-level subtropical ridge axis will remain the dominant
weather feature across south central Texas. Temperatures will
continue to remain above normal across all areas. Highs will remain
in the mid 90s to near 100 with lows generally in the 70s. With
daytime heating and low-level mixing, we should see enough lowering
of dewpoints in the afternoon to keep Heat Index values largely below
Advisory levels. However, we continue to stress heat safety during
this period of above normal temperatures. Opportunities for rainfall
appear very limited and we will keep the forecast dry for Friday
through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  78  99  78 /   0   0  -   -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  77  98  77 /   0  -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75 100  76  99  76 /   0  -   -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            74  96  74  96  74 /  -    0  -   -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 101  80 101  80 /  -   -   10  20  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  77  97  76 /  -    0  -   -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             75 101  76 101  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        75 100  77  99  76 /   0  -   -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  78  98  78 /  -   10  -   20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       76 100  77  99  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  77  99  77 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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