Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 180550
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings have already come into AUS and areas east into the
Coastal Plains at 1500 feet, and these ceilings should eventually
spread west to SAT/SSF by 8Z. Low clouds should lift between 14-15Z
once again at the I-35 TAF sites to allow for VFR conditions with
southerly 10-15 knot winds gusting to 20-25 knots through late
tomorrow afternoon. Winds tomorrow evening should not be as gusty as
they were this evening (and still are in a few spots). MVFR ceilings
should also develop a bit later tomorrow night for the I-35 TAF
sites, but also a bit lower with a greater chance of IFR ceilings.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
High clouds are moving in from the northeast already impacting the
I-35 terminals and soon for KDRT. No category changes are expected
until around midnight before MVFR CIGs develop similar to previous
nights. Models have been developing CIGs too low in the last several
days and have opted to keep I-35 terminals at MVFR through much of
the overnight hours and again improving the VFR by 13-15Z. Winds will
pick up and become breezy again by late morning.

KDRT should see VFR prevailing throughout the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge
extending across northern Mexico into Texas with the flow from the
north. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and
winds were from the south to southwest. The upper level ridge will
remain in place keeping the weather dry during this period. The
surface high will shift slightly to the east turning the low level
winds to the southeast. This will bring temperatures down a degree or
two Sunday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Monday a weak frontal boundary will stall across Central Texas and
isolated thunderstorms are possible over Llano, Burnet, and
Williamson Counties. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will continue
to keep the weather dry and hot through Wednesday. Southeasterly
winds during this period will keep temperatures down a few degrees. A
tropical system is expected to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico
early in the week and where and how this develops will influence the
forecast for later in the week. The ECMWF and GFS are significantly
different on this feature. The GFS is mainly dry for us and the ECMWF
has significant rainfall. Have trended toward the GFS for now with
only slight chance POPs and low rainfall totals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  75  94  74  97 /   0   0  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  74  94  73  96 /   0  -   10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  74  95  73  96 /   0  -   10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            96  74  92  72  94 /   0   0  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  76  99  76  99 /   0   0  -    0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  74  92  73  95 /   0  -   20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport            101  74  97  73  98 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  75  94  73  96 /   0  -   10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  75  95  75  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  75  96  74  97 /   0   0  10  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport          100  76  96  75  96 /   0   0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...LH
Synoptic/Grids...17



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