Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 170001 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
701 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

Main aviation concern through the next 12-16 hours will center around
developing showers and storms across West Texas and their progression
east towards the south-central TAF sites. Strong storms are expected
to develop across San Angelo area and shift east after 03-06Z.
Storms will weaken prior to arriving at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF near 11-12Z
where SHRA may be all that is left with the main line. KDRT could be
near some stronger activity near 03-07Z but it could miss just to the
north. Will monitor trends closely for direct weather inclusion if
needed.

MVFR ceiling heights are ongoing at KSSF/KSAT and this will persist
through the overnight hours and will further decrease to IFR ceiling
heights 11-14Z. KAUS remains low-end VFR currently but will fall to
low-end MVFR overnight with brief IFR possible. KDRT is VFR as of 00z
and will remain so through the evening but then fall to MVFR before
coming back up to VFR with the passage of a dryline through the early
morning hours. KSAT/KSSF/KAUS will remain MVFR through 16Z then
scatter out to VFR through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The latest water vapor satellite loop shows an upper level low
pressure system over the desert southwest. In advance of this low,
southerly flow in the low-levels continues with afternoon surface
dewpoint temperatures currently in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. For
this evening, the bulk of the upper lift is expected to remain north
of our region. However, we can`t completely rule out an isolated
storm or two moving into Val Verde county early this evening. The
better chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive after
midnight across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains
as a line of convection approaches from the northwest. Given the
stronger lift is expected to remain north of our region, the best
chance for severe weather appears to remain west of the I-35 corridor
for the overnight hours. Damaging winds and large hail appear to be
the main severe weather concerns. As the line of showers and storms
approaches the I-35 corridor, a gradual weakening is expected due to
strengthening of the mid-level capping inversion and the trend for
this line to move away from the mid and upper level support. We will
continue a chance for showers and storms Wednesday morning generally
along and east of I-35, then shift the chance of rainfall east of
I-35 in the afternoon. Quiet weather is in store Wednesday night and
we will keep the forecast dry at this time.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The next chance for active weather across south central Texas will
arrive on Thursday as another upper level trough approaches from the
west. At this time it appears the best chance for severe weather will
remain along and west of the I-35 corridor. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main severe weather threats. Shower and thunderstorm
chances continue on Friday as active southwest flow aloft remains
intact across south central Texas. The next item of concern will be
during the upcoming weekend as a cold front moves in from the
northwest sometime Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Moisture
pooling ahead of this front will send precipitable water values into
the 1.5-1.75" range. Concerns are increasing for locally heavy
rainfall across south central Texas this weekend given the cold
front, increasing moisture levels and a fairly active flow aloft.

FIRE WEATHER...
On Wednesday, dry air will move into the southern Edwards Plateau and
Rio Grande Plains. Afternoon humidities across these areas will drop
into the 10 to 20 percent range. However, 20 foot winds speeds will
generally remain at or less than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  87  74  89  73 /  50  40  10  30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  85  73  89  73 /  40  40  10  30  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  87  73  89  73 /  40  40  10  30  30
Burnet Muni Airport            68  88  71  86  71 /  60  20  10  40  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  94  70  94  74 /  20   0  -   30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  87  73  87  72 /  50  40  10  30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             70  92  72  91  73 /  50  30  10  30  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  86  74  89  73 /  40  40  10  30  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  84  75  90  74 /  20  50  10  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  89  74  89  74 /  40  40  10  30  30
Stinson Muni Airport           72  89  74  90  74 /  40  40  10  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...30



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