Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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512
FXUS64 KEWX 191740
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD...
Guidance continues to back off on early morning CIGs for most
terminals. Do believe some intermittent MVFR may occur at KSAT as
indicated in many different model solutions, thus including a
prevailing line for MVFR there, however, extent of CIGs should be
limited and left KAUS/KSSF VFR throughout the period. KDRT should
also remain VFR. No other terminal impacts expected.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge pushing
back into Texas with southeasterly to easterly flow over the state.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over the central Gulf and
winds across our CWA were from the southeast. The subtropical ridge
will dominate the pattern during this period. Most of the region will
be dry. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon across the south where deeper moisture is located and
the seabreeze may move in. Thursday afternoon only the extreme
southeastern part of the CWA will have any chance for rain. Under the
upper ridge we will begin to see temperatures increase today and
Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The subtropical ridge will remain in place across the south central
part of the country through the end of the forecast period. This will
mean most of our area will be dry through the long term period. The
seabreeze may move into our southeastern/eastern area each afternoon
and we have included slight chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will continue to increase through the end of the week
and then should level off. Heat index values will approach heat
advisory levels over the southeastern part of our area Friday and
continue this way over the weekend. We may need to issue an advisory
later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76 100  77 100  77 /  -   -   -   -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  99  75  99  76 /  -   -   -   -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  99  75  99  76 /  10  -   -   -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  98  74  98  75 /   0  -   -   -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  98  77 100  77 /  -   -   -   -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  99  76  98  76 /  -   -    0  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             74 100  75 101  76 /  10  -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75  99  76 /  10  -   -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  99  76  98  77 /  -   10  10  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  99  78 100  77 /  10  10  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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