Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 132355
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.AVIATION...
For this evening through Tuesday evening...

At KDRT, CIGs rise through MVFR this evening, then fall to IFR/LIFR
while RADZ/BR develop overnight. CIGs slowly rise to MVFR early in
the afternoon while RADZ/BR end, then VFR by late afternoon. SE winds
5 KTs increase to 10 to 15 KTs with gusts up to 22 KTs late morning
into afternoon.

At KSAT/KSSF, VFR skies prevail going into the overnight, then a
period of MVFR CIGs is expected late night into morning, improving to
VFR in the afternoon. However, some drier air has filtered into that
area with some models showing only FEW-SCT MVFR, perhaps IFR level
clouds throwing some uncertainty in the forecast. SE to S winds 5 KTs
increase to 5 to 10 KTs on Tuesday.

At, KAUS VFR prevails through the forecast with SCT MVFR level clouds
late night into morning. SE to S winds 5 KTs increase to 5 to 10 KTs
on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Cloud cover continues to take a hold across South Central Texas this
afternoon. The bulk of the cloudiness across the western counties is
thick low-level clouds and across the east we are seeing scattered
low clouds and high-level clouds streaming overhead. Temperatures in
locations with little low-level clouds have warmed to near 80 degrees
while temperatures in the west remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Weak low-level lift remains in place as well across the western
counties and patches of very light rain/drizzle continue. This lift
is expected to continue into tomorrow morning and will leave in the
mention of the light rain through 18z tomorrow. In addition to the
possible light rain, patchy fog will be possible mainly across the
western and southeastern parts of the CWA.

Lows tonight will bottom out in the upper 50s to middle 60s across
the region. Mostly cloudy skies with some possible breaks should
stick around through the afternoon tomorrow. Highs will be in the 70s
to near 80 degrees once again. For tomorrow night, forecast
soundings show better low-level moisture trapped underneath of an
inversion and this looks like a better fog potential than tonight of
most of the area excluding the Hill Country. Low temperatures will
bottom out in the lower 60s across the region.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Near zonal flow will be in place for the beginning of the long-term
forecast with southerly flow leading to higher temperatures and
dewpoints through the end of the work week. Highs by Friday will be
in the lower to upper 80s. A large trough axis will pass through the
plains Friday afternoon, and this will send in a cold front through
the area sometime Saturday. The GFS is showing the FROPA early
Saturday morning, ECMWF has it Saturday afternoon, and the Canadian
is somewhere between the two. Regardless, cooler temperatures will
filter in behind the front with lows Saturday night in the 40s and
highs Sunday in the 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures can be
expected Monday as southerly flow returns to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  78  62  77  65 /   0   0  -   10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  60  78  62  78  65 /   0   0  -   10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     60  78  61  79  65 /   0   0  -   10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            59  76  61  76  62 /   0   0  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  77  62  79  63 /  20  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  77  61  77  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             63  76  62  79  65 /   0  -   -   -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        60  77  61  78  65 /   0   0  -   10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  79  61  80  65 /   0   0  -   10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       61  77  62  79  66 /   0   0  -   10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           63  78  62  80  66 /   0   0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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