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000
FXUS63 KGRB 170847
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
347 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ON PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST OUT OF NE INTO NORTHERN IL. ONGOING PCPN
OVER IA/MN BORDER...NOW EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CWA...WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTH
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. EASTERLY WINDS OVER WI...STILL
USHERING IN DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. THIS HAS SLOWED
ADVANCE OF PCPN...THOUGH HIGH BASED...THE RETURNS ARE INCREASING
OVER THE STATE.

HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF EVENING FORECASTER TO SHIFT PCPN SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT AND SAT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH/RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MESO MODELS LIKE HRRR FOR DAY 1 PCPN TRENDS.
PCPN FOCUS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/FGEN FORCING
WITH 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER STATE.

HAVE STAYED WITH JUST SHOWER MENTION THROUGH TODAY AS INSTABILITY
MISSING OVER EASTERN WI...BRINGING IN SLIGHT CHANCE LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT EAST.

TEMPS TODAY TO BE HELD BACK BY CLOUDS AND EAST FLOW THUS STAYED
WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT CWA. MAX TEMPS BACK TO
NORMAL OR ABOVE ON SAT...EXCEPT EAST WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY COMPONENT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM IS TIMING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
WISCONSIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THE SURFACE LOW
TO THE WEST GETS CLOSER TO WISCONSIN. HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY.

HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WITH
SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH