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000
FXUS63 KGRB 110910
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
410 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

PCPN TRENDS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN IL TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WELL SOUTH OF GRB CWA...A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN
WILL LIKELY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY DEEP
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN OUR FAR SW AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY...WITH SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS AS FAR NORTH AS
MFI-CLI-GRB. MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
AS SFC/925 MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVER C/EC WI. A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS WORKS INTO THE RGN. THE RRQ OF THE JET AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROF WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.

AS THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE RGN
TONIGHT...AND THE ARCTIC HIGH SAGS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVG...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND PULL MUCH COLDER ARCTIC
AIR BACK INTO C/NE WI. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN THE TEENS
ON WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM AND TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IT
WAS FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER...SO TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE BELOW
NORMAL BUT WARMER THAN THEY WERE A ABOUT A WEEK AGO. SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

A COLDER AIR MASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO RATHER COLD LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TNGT AS MID/HI CLOUDS INCREASE
THRU THE NGT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO
IMPACT THE SRN HALF OF WI ON TUE WITH PCPN TYPE THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH TEMPS BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDING AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. INITIALLY...THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN TUE MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING MORE TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT COMPLETELY SATURATE OVER CENTRAL OR EAST-
CENTRAL WI DURING THE MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY TO SEE
RAIN/SNOW AT KMTW...WITH FEW FLURRIES IN THE EVENING INTO THE FOX
VALLEY. NRN WI TO REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. AS
LOW DEEPENS TO SOUTH OF STATE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH
TUE EVENING...GUSTING INTO THE 30S ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

SOME MELTING WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER BRIEF
SHOT OF ARTIC AIR WILL PUT A HALT TO THE MELTING TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
RETURNING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SINCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MELTING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MINOR URBAN FLOODING MAY OCCUR
DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A
LONGER DURATION SNOW MELT FOR RUN OFF TO START IMPACTING STREAMS
AND RIVERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH