Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 272343
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
643 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

AN ENERGETIC 24-HOUR PERIOD COMING UP ACROSS NE WI AS A CDFNT
SWEEPS THRU THE AREA TNGT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR TUE. MAIN FCST CHALLENGES TO BE
THE EXTENT OF PCPN TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT AND HOW FAR
SOUTH TO TAKE PCPN CHCS ON TUE.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES OF NE IA
WITH AN INVERTED TROF N-NW TO ANOTHER LOW PRES OVER EXTREME WRN
ONTARIO. A WRMFNT EXTENDED NE FROM THE IA LOW THRU E-CNTRL WI WITH
TEMPS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SOARING PAST 70 DEGS. A CDFNT
STRETCHED SW FROM THE IA LOW THRU THE SRN PLAINS. PCPN WAS MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST BETWEEN THE CDFNT AND
AN APPROACHING UPR TROF LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS. PCPN WAS MORE
ISOLATED OVER FAR NE WI JUST NORTH OF THE WRMFNT.

A MORE GENERAL PCPN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW CONTS TO TRACK NE INTO E-CNTRL WI BY
06Z TUE AND ERN UPR MI BY 12Z TUE. THE CDFNT WL SWEEP THRU ALL BUT
THE LAKESHORE AREAS BY MIDNGT AND WL HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MINOR (ROUGHLY 0.10-0.25") DUE TO BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING
TRAILING THE CDFNT OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF. PCPN TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS ALL THE MDLS BRING A DRY SLOT INTO THE SW
QUADRANT OF THE STATE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 40S N-CNTRL
WI...TO AROUND 50 DEGS E-CNTRL WI.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS THRU WI TUE MORNING WITH THE DRY SLOT
SHIFTING INTO ERN WI. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED TUE MORNING WITH GUSTS > 30 MPH AT TIMES UNDER
THIS DRY SLOT. BY TUE AFTERNOON...THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BE
UNDER A COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IMPACTING
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. CANNOT RULE OUT A CHC OF RAIN SHWRS
THRU THE DAY ACROSS NRN WI...WHILE SRN SECTIONS TO STAY DRY WITH A
FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AT TIMES. CAA TO ALREADY BE UNDER WAY TUE
MORNING WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -1 TO -3C RANGE BY 00Z WED.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S N-CNTRL...TO THE MID
50S E-CNTRL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRAG A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A FOCUS OF CONVECTION IN
ADDITION TO THE WRAP AROUND PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH. CAA WITH THE
WRAP AROUND WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT MIX ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WED
NIGHT.

WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME PROGS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES OVER THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG A STRONGER S/W TROUGH TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL INCLUDE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10 C BY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GOING FORECAST OF A
SHOWER MIX TURNING TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS REASONABLE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WORKS INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THE REST
OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CIGS MAINLY 3500-5000 FT AGL.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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