Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 112017
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
317 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DYNAMICS TONIGHT BUT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
NORTH...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM MOS POPS WERE IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON WHILE 12Z GFS MOS POPS WERE ONLY CHANCE
OR SLIGHT CHANCE. NAM WAS SHOWING AROUND 2000J/KG SBCAPE WITH
LITTLE TO NO CIN AT GRB AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...WHILE GFS
WAS AROUND 1000J/KG. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK EXTENDED INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
MIND...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT EASTERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN IT SHOULD BE QUIET UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PROBABLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED TO SOME
EXTENT. COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARGUE FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF HIGHS DO NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE NORTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY COOL DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND A BREEZE. COULD GET A VERY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW DEPARTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CIGS PREVAILED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST
EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MIDDAY. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT
THEY WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG





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