Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 022301
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVED
ACROSS THE STATE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. SOME OF THE MODELS
HAD SCATTERED SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK...BUT SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANYTHING ON RADAR OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM REACH THE
800-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE STATE OF WISCONSIN IN GENERAL THUNDER.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...BELOW 6000 FT...AS SEEN ON
BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AND A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WITH COOL CONDITIONS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIG WARMUP
LATE IN THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TUESDAY EVG...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE THROUGH MID-EVG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-500 J/KG...LI`S ZERO TO -3 AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM)...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL WITH ANY TSTM. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS ON THU
NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS
DEVELOPS MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH
C/EC WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING CONSIDERATIONS WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BACK TO THE FCST
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AREAS OF MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8000 FT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. INITIAL TIMING OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL TOTALS
WELL INTO THE 50S AND CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 800 J/KG INDICATE A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL. WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTH AND EVENING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH


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