Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 251659
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1059 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MN AND WI EARLY THIS MORNING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS MOVG THROUGH SOUTHERN SD AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND
PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE SPREADING INTO WSTRN WI.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
FLURRIES MAY AFFECT OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. LIGHT NNW WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BRING SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO VILAS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER FAR NC WI TONIGHT...AND
DEVELOPING NE FLOW COULD ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES INTO MAINLY MANITOWOC COUNTY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET.
SUSPECT THAT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20-25
BLO ZERO RANGE IN NC WI...WITH MOST OTHER PLACES FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BLO ZERO. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER
NC WI...WHERE APPARENT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 25-30 BLO
ZERO LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN N-NW AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHC OF LES FOR FAR NC WI...BUT PULL ANY LES
OFFSHORE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN EC WI. VERY
COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT A COLD AND DRY START TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

WARMER...BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE HAD BEEN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS KEPT THE SYSTEM AND SNOW CHANCES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE BUT
BUT WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH







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