Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 152326
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
526 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 244 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Wind trajectories off of Lake Superior have remained favorable for
lake effect snow showers to continue across much of north central
WI through the afternoon hours, along with clouds and a few
flurries across eastern WI. The snow activity and low clouds
will end/diminish late this afternoon as the flow becomes E/SE.
Although the lower clouds will be gone, mid-upper clouds will
continue to push into the area from the NW. Even a few flurries
and snow showers are being generated on the tail end of a strong
upper jet and warm air advection across northeast MN early this
afternoon. This will dive SE across the area this evening. It is
working into some drier air, but it is not showing signs of
weakening at this point, so will add some flurries to mainly
central and north central WI for the late afternoon and evening
hours. Dry weather is expected on Thursday as high pressure builds
into the Great Lakes. Plenty of mid and upper level moisture over
the region, so skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. NAM
shows enough low level moisture for some lower clouds, but think
this may be overdoing it.

Clouds should keep temperatures from tanking tonight across most
of the area. The only exception could be over far north central
and far northeastern WI where the mid cloud deck looks to miss,
winds will be light, and snow is still on the ground. Lowered
lows a few degrees for these locations. Strong warm air advection
begins on Thursday, but low level inversion should keep the area
from reaching the upper 20s to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 244 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Expect dry and much warmer than normal conditions to prevail
through the weekend. Models showed a mid level ridge passing
across Wisconsin Friday/Friday night as a surface low, and
associated precipitation, passes well to the north of the state.
Flow then becomes more zonal across the region before a short wave
and surface low bring a chance for rain to the area early next
week. The 12Z ECMWF and GFS differed in their timing of this
system, with the GFS about 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. The 12Z
Canadian was quite a bit different from the GFS/ECMWF and
appeared to be an outlier. The blended solution brought a chance
for rain into the area Monday into Monday evening, before PoPs
dropped off behind the departing system. Model differences
increase and confidence level decreases as we head into the middle
part of next week. Have highest PoPs late Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning, with snow or a mix changing to rain as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday.

Low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s on Thursday night are
expected to warm into the 30s for the early part of next week.
Highs should be mainly in the 40s, but some lower to middle 50s
are likely for the weekend into early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 519 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Expect primarily mid-level clouds and VFR conditions through the
TAF period, with light northerly winds becoming southeast on
Thursday. The exception may be across parts of north central and
central WI this evening, when ceilings may lower to 4-6K FT AGL
and some flurries or brief light snow may develop. There could
also be some brief MVFR ceilings near the upper Michigan border
tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Bersch
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch



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