605
FXUS63 KGRB 290733
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
233 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sub-severe wind gusts (40-50mph) are possible for a few hours early
  this morning as a line of storms moves across northern WI.

- Scattered thunderstorms will likely re-develop this afternoon.
  These storms may pose a severe wind and hail threat through the
  evening.

- Thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall to the area
  this afternoon , with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  resulting in localized flooding especially in urban areas.

- Temperatures and humidity will trend back above average today,
  with near to above average temps continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Mesoanalysis...

A persistent MCV producing sub-severe wind gusts (40-50mph) is
moving east across northern WI this morning. With a well established
cold pool, favorable low-level shear orientation, and 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE this MCV should maintain its strength for a few more hours
despite RAP analysis showing 200-300 MLCIN. Additionally a few pop-up
cells have developed ahead of the MCV along a north/south oriented
warm front that is draped across central WI. Will need to monitor
any cell mergers for any possible QLCS type spin-ups. Convective
active with this MCV should start to wane as it moves into northeast
WI around daybreak where dew points are only in the low 60s.

Afternoon/Evening Severe Weather Threat...

The slower start to last nights convection over Minnesota has
complicated this afternoon and evenings severe threat to some
degree. Current thinking is that convective initiation will be
focused along a remnant cold pool from this mornings convection as
well as any differential heating boundaries that result from this
mornings cloud cover. The cold pool is currently sagging southeast
ward across northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota and is progged
to be draped from northeast to southwest WI by this afternoon. The
primary driver of any thunderstorms this afternoon will be robust
instability (SBCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg). This should result in rapidly
developing updrafts capable of producing large hail and up to 60 mph
wind gusts. However, with a relative lack of deep layer shear and
disorganized hodographs updrafts should quickly cut off from the
surface by their associated down draft. CAMs do show signs that
clusters of cells may also grow upscale into a line segment which
may also increase the severe wind threat ahead of any bowing
segments. The severe threat should begin to wane this evening as
instability decreases. Given the complexity of the environment today
confidence remains relative low with the finer details of this
event.

In addition to severe weather threat there is a marginal risk for
minor flooding today primarily if any back building or training
storms develop over any urban areas. PWATS around 1.6" are near the
90th percentile for this time of year and warm cloud depths are over
13kft. This may result in periods of 1-2" hour rainfall rates.

Monday`s Thunderstorm Potential...

Broad ascent related to an upper level trough and jet streak moving
over the state Monday may set the stage for another round of
scattered thunderstorms. Thermodynamics are forecast to be favorable
for a few marginally severe storms as SBCAPE build to 750-1000 J/kg
and low-level lapse rates steepen to 7-7.5 C/km ahead of an
approaching cold front. 40-45kts of 0-6km shear will also be in
place which may allow for some storms to become organized. Result is
shallow inverted-v soundings and straight elongated hodographs which
support strong wind gusts and up to 1" hail with an storms that do
develop along or just ahead of the front late Monday morning through
the afternoon. A few CAMs also indicate a few post-frontal storms
may develop. With the cooler mid-level air behind the front these
storms may also be capable of producing hail.

Rest of the Week...

Global ensembles show prevailing northwesterly upper level flow
through the middle of the week as a ridge builds over the Canadian
Prairie. This pattern should bring generally quiet weather to the
region, however, any ridge riding short-waves that happen to
coincide with peak diurnal heating could kick of a round of isolated
to scattered showers or storms. The resolvability of these features
is very low at the moment so kept NBM PoPs and thunder probs.
Otherwise temperatures should remain relatively steady through the
end of the week with highs in the middle 70s to 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Prevailing conditions will remain VFR through Sunday. The main
concern will be the potential for periods of showers and storms
moving across the state at times. The first round is expected to
push into central and north-central WI after 06z. There is a
potential for gusty winds and heavy rain with these storms. Though
a lower risk, some of the storms could reach the Fox Valley and
far northeast WI after 10z so have continued to include PROB30 to
cover this. Some fog may form CWA/AUW/RHI in wake of the overnight
storms.

There may be a break in showers and storms for the rest of the
morning, though there are now indications more showers and storms
could develop, especially over the north. The approach of a cold
front and building instability will then result in another round
of scattered strong to severe storms mid to late afternoon. These
storms could produce strong wind gusts. Have included a mention for
storms in all TAF sites except MTW. Brief MVFR conditions will be
possible during these storms. Showers will linger in wake of the
storms into the evening as the cold front crosses the area.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......JLA