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000
FXUS63 KGRB 120401
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1101 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

COLDER TOMORROW...MILDER BY FRIDAY...THEN COLDER AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WL REMAIN ACRS NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH A RIDGE OUT NR THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER
CENTRAL/ERN NOAM. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
MODEST...THOUGH WITH SOME VARIATION IN TIME.

TEMPS WL UNDERGO DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS DEPENING ON WHETHER
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR OR CANADIAN AIR DOMINATES THE AREA. BUT WITH
THE CANADIAN AIR IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BLO NORMAL. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED AND IT DOES
NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ANY STG ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS WL AFFECT THE
AREA...SO PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKLEY TO END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW...TEMPERATURES...AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
ISSUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN
TO THE VERY FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. TODAYS WEATHER WAS
WARMER AND DRIER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH AFFECTS THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SLIGHTLY AS THIS DRY AIR SEEMS TO HAVE LOCKED ITSELF INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
TONIGHT...EITHER SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH OUT THE CWA
OR DRY. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT THE LIGHT
SNOW. EVEN THOUGH IT IS DRIER AT THE LOW LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...MOISTURE SHOULD STILL STREAM IN TONIGHT OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE MAIN SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN IL/IN
WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE
BEHIND IT. AMPLE FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH A 300MB RRQ OF THE JET PUSHING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN STRONG LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS. GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT...LIGHT SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST
OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. HELD OFF ON SPREADING THE SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN BETTER SATURATION OCCURS. ARCTIC
HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...AND WITH IT
MORE DRY AIR...SO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD START
DISSIPATING BY EARLY MORNING AND COME TO AN END BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
IN GENERAL...NOT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH JUST A
DUSTING IN MOST SPOTS IF ANY.

WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE STATE...AND AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WISCONSIN WILL SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP WINDS
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NEW GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH MEANS
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PLAGUE THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
VERY QUICKLY DUE TO STRONG CAA...WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED IN
MANY LOCATIONS...AGAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND SOME MARCH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WX IS EXPECTED. THE OVERALL TREND SINCE YDA HAS BEEN
TO DOWNPLAY THE MINOR ISENT LIFT SNOW EVENT FOR LATE WED NGT INTO
THU. EDGED POPS DOWN A BIT...THOUGH WE NEVER HAD THEM VERY HIGH
TO BEGIN WITH...AND DON/T WANT TO TOTALLY PULL THEM JUST YET.

MINS WED NGT CONT TO BE A DIFFICULT FCST GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND
LGT WINDS EARLY IN THE NGT...AND A QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS
ARRIVE. STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WL BE THE DAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT WL BE CROSSING
THE AREA...MUCH LIKE YDA...THE DEEP WLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH MILD LEVELS.

STUCK WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FCST SINCE
NOTHING SEEMED UNREASONABLE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

HIGH CLOUDS AND AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES NR 5K MOVING IN OVER
REGION AS UPPER TROF PASSES. WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST WI HAVE BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PCPN FOR THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CIGS EXPECTED...EXCEPTION AT SITES IN
SHADOW OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE CLOUDS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...WHERE GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD AS LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. &&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

SOME MELTING OCCURRED TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES REACHED
THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PUT A HALT TO THE MELTING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS RETURNING
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SINCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MELTING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK. MINOR URBAN FLOODING MAY OCCUR DUE TO CLOGGED
STORM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A LONGER DURATION SNOW
MELT FOR RUN OFF TO START IMPACTING STREAMS AND RIVERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE
HYDROLOGY......WOLF