Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS63 KGRB 312031
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE TODAY...WITH A WEAK
RIDGE MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WAS SLOWLY MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
STATE BY 12Z SATURDAY SO WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT FROM 06Z TO
12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

BACKING WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB SHOULD BRING AN END TO
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS IN
THE EAST MAY TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT...AS THE EC HAD SOME HIGH
925MB RH VALUES DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. GEM-REG
CLOUD FORECAST FROM METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA SHOWED CLOUDS
CLEARING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW COVER...SHOULD RESULT IN
RATHER COLD LOWS TONIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
LOWS IN THAT PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS STILL MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME PARTS OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WAA ON THE BACKSIDE WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY FOR A PRECIPITATION
MENTION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT...BUT
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS POINTING TOWARD LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK COOL
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF MIX ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STARTING TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF AT LEAST ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS PART OF WESTERN GREAT LAKE REGION...BUT WILL
FOCUS ON HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR NOW.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED WITH A
TREND TO A GRADUALLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CAA PATTERN WITHIN THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SHIFT TO A MIX OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

WILL LOWER THIS SATURDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH DUE TO A SNOW COVER MAY LINGER OVER THIS REGION...AND
FORECAST CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CIGS WERE VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME HIGH END MVFR CIGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH
WERE MOSTLY MVFR DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHER THAN THAT...WINDS WERE STRONG AND GUSTY
IN THE EAST...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS IN NORTHERN DOOR
COUNTY. OTHER LOCATIONS FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN
HAD GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 34 TO 38KT RANGE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO KANSAS AT MIDDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST
OF WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF
INDICATED SOME HIGH RH VALUES AT 925 MB IN THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. OPTED TO GO WITH THE DRYING TREND SEEN ON THE GEM-REG CLOUD
FORECAST GRAPHIC...WHICH SHOWED MOST OF THE CLOUDS EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WERE SHOWN
HANGING AROUND THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
CLOUDS WERE NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT THE EC 925MB RH WOULD
SUGGEST.

LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-039-040-049-
050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.