Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 011122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Showers dissipated in eastern WI as a short-wave trof exited the
region early this morning. A secondary cold front caused winds to
gust to 25 to 30 kts on Lake Michigan, and brought some low
stratocumulus clouds into the forecast area. The arrival of drier
Canadian air, with dew points in the 40s, was causing the low
clouds to erode over northern WI.

Low clouds should continue to shift south and erode this morning,
followed by scattered diurnal cumulus for the rest of the day.
Gusty north winds will diminish as Canadian high pressure builds
into the region in the late morning and afternoon. Temperatures
will be below normal, with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

A cool night is in store tonight as the Canadian high settles into
the western Great Lakes. Most locations will have min temps in
the mid 40s to mid 50s range, but the typical cold spots in north
central WI should drop into the lower 40s. Have added some patchy
fog in parts of north central and central WI, where the sfc high
and lightest boundary layer winds will reside.

On Saturday, temperatures will moderate a bit under mostly
sunny skies, with highs warming into the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Zonal flow at 500mb will continue through the period. Temperatures
should be close to normal at night, with high temperatures at or
above normal through much of the period.

Tranquil conditions will continue from Saturday night through
Tuesday as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Next
system approaches from the west Tuesday night, bringing a chance
of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
latest ECMWF indicated an active pattern Wednesday night through
Friday as the cold front stalls south of the area Thursday, then
returns northward as a warm front on Friday. Still pretty far out
to determine if this scenario will play out. Will monitor to see
if the ECMWF continues with this scenario the next few nights.

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A few patches of low clouds remained over the forecast area early
this morning, but most locations were reporting VFR conditions.
After the patchy low clouds erode early, only scattered fair
weather cumulus are anticipated for the rest of the day. Gusty
north winds, especially in eastern WI, will diminish later this
morning as high pressure builds into the region.

Clear skies and light winds are expected across the forecast area
tonight, with patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog possible over parts of
central and north central WI late.




SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.