Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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969
FXUS63 KGRB 161117
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER WISCONSIN AT 09Z. IT
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY THOUGH IT IS BEING MAINTAINED
SOMEWHAT BY THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN MOST PLACES ASSUMING THERE IS
SOME CLEARING.

THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT BUT THERE
DOESN/T SEEM TO BE MUCH FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET AND HOW
UNSTABLE IT BECOMES. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT CLOUDS TO HOLD DOWN
INSTABILITY BUT THERE IS DECENT SHEAR. SO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT A SURE THING AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY MONDAY. A ZONAL FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS COMBINED
WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE
FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO. DRY SLOT EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

COLDER AIR STILL SLOWER TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AT MOST PLACES. LATEST
MODEL RUNS WOULD SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. FROST POTENTIAL
VERY LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. STILL
CONTINUED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 13Z TO 15Z WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
AFTER THAT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WIDELY VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM






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