Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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426
FXUS63 KGRB 211649
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1149 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Satellite imagery shows mid to high level clouds associated with
a weak nearly closed upper low passing to the south, will depart
East Central Wisconsin this morning.

A subtle surface boundary dropped over the area overnight. Winds
will be light from the north or northwest today due to the
passage. 850 temps will actually be slightly warmer from the
north today vs Friday. Dry air from the north and mixing will
produce some few-sct high base cu this afternoon. Otherwise plenty
of sun today with slightly warmer temperatures.

Clear skies tonight and continued sunshine expected Sunday as a
high pressure ridge builds into the area.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Precipitation timing and the warm and dry conditions ahead of it
are the main forecast concerns in the long term.

Surface high pressure over the Great lakes Region and a mid level
ridge over Wisconsin this weekend will slowly drift to the east.
Warm temperatures and low relative humidities, due to mixing of
dry air at low levels, will result in elevated fire danger in
northern Wisconsin until the onset of precipitation.

Return flow of increasingly unstable air will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the area as a cold front approaches
the state. Parts of central and north central Wisconsin may get
some rain Monday afternoon, but it should hold off until the
overnight hours across much of the area, and may not reach the
Lake Michigan shoreline until Tuesday morning. 00Z models had a
surface low reaching Wisconsin late Wednesday or Thursday, but
there were differences in the timing of this feature. With this in
mind, the chance for showers and storms remains in the forecast
through Friday.

Expect above normal temperatures to persist through the early part
of next week before it cools off during the latter half of the
week. Highs on Friday are expected to be slightly below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Vfr conditions will continue through Sunday night. A few fair
weather cumulus clouds between six and eight thousand feet are
expected this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise, a
weak boundary is expected to move across northeast Wisconsin
this evening. The weak boundary may shift winds to the south
or southwest at KGRB/KATW/KMTW for a brief period early this
evening and then will turn light northerly overnight. Light
and variable winds are expected Sunday morning. Winds will
turn to the south/southwest late Sunday morning across
north-central and central Wisconsin, and then across northeast
Wisconsin Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Due to persistence the last few days...continued to lower surface
dewpoints from guidance. Most fire weather locations were dropping
well into the lower 20s for afternoon relative humidity. Parts of
far Northeast wisconsin and far Northern wisconsin saw afternoon
relative humidity drop into the upper teens friday afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Eckberg
FIRE WEATHER...TDH



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