Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 191714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1214 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Jet energy passing south of the forecast area will bring increasing
middle and high clouds to central and east central Wisconsin by
early afternoon. A cold front will bring some scattered clouds to
northern Wisconsin as well. Highs today will continue to be around
eight degrees above normal despite cold advection late in the day.

Cold advection continues tonight, which should result in some
lake effect clouds across the far north. Lows will be very close
to normal.

Lake effect clouds are expected across the north Thursday with
partly sunny skies elsewhere. Highs will be a few degrees below
normal due to continued cold advection.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Northwest flow aloft at the beginning of the period will bring at
or slightly below normal temperatures Friday into Saturday. the
500mb ridge will slide eastward early next week with a transition
to a southwest flow by the middle of next week as temperatures
return to above normal levels.

Northerly flow off Lake Superior will bring some cloudiness
and the possibilities of some sprinkles or flurries Friday morning
along the Upper Michigan border. A few sprinkles will linger in
the afternoon across far northeast Wisconsin. Attention then turns
to potential lake band across Lake Michigan from late Thursday
night into Friday morning. 850/925mb winds would suggest this lake
band would stay offshore Door, Kewaunee and Manitowoc Counties.
Another weak cold front will move across the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This system will bring a chance of rain showers
to northern Wisconsin on Sunday. High pressure will then dominate
the weather pattern Sunday night through Monday. The 00z ECMWF
model now suggesting potential for strong low pressure moving
across the western Great Lakes region. The latest ECMWF would
suggest we would get into the warm sector, raising the possibility
of gusty winds and the potential for thunderstorms next week.
Still a week out, but getting to that time of year of gales across
the Great Lakes region.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Mainly vfr conditions will prevail across the taf sites
through the period.  Mid and high clouds will push overhead across
much of the region through the evening before departing.  Behind a
cold front, incoming colder air will likely bring in mvfr cigs over
northern WI late tonight into Thursday.



LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......MPC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.