Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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241
FXUS63 KGRB 171719
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MOIST EASTERLY WINDS BLOWING OVER THE COLD WATER OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WAS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION AT 09Z.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AFTER SUNRISE. NOT MUCH
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL BE
AWHILE BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATE AND HEATING BEGINS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND 80F IS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE. JUST NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE.

THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE EAST AROUND
SUNSET. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS GREAT AS IT DID A FEW
DAYS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR
LARGE HAIL. SO THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS THERE BUT MAY BE
TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND LACK OF HEATING. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD BE BREEZY...COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE EAST BUT TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

500MB PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING WARMER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATER NEXT WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD NOT BE
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

FROST HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW COUNTIES
ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLY NEEDING A FREEZE WARNING IF TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL...
BUT SHOULD RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO UNFOLDING TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA...AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CIGS WITHIN A MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MID-AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN ANY STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-EVENING AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL RETURN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH- CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






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