Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 300402
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER ALREADY UNDERWAY
ACROSS NE WI AS A STRONG CDFNT HEADS INTO SRN WI. MAIN FCST
CONCERNS INCLUDE: EXTENT OF CLOUDS...POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHWRS AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST OVER CNTRL WI TNGT AND THEN HOW
LONG CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THE AREA ON TUE.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM CNTRL
IA E-NE THRU SRN WI TO CNTRL LWR MI. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SHWRS
TRAILED THE FNT AND REACHED FROM SE MN EWD THRU CNTRL WI TO NRN
LWR MI. AN AREA OF HI PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W-CNTRL ONTARIO. THE
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A PLETHERA OF CLOUDS FROM THE PLAINS EWD
TO QUEBEC AS COLDER AIR SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE NRN TIER OF STATES.

THE ONTARIO HI PRES WL COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPR
RDG TO BRING A QUIET...BUT MUCH COOLER NGT TO THE REGION COMPARED
TO THE PAST WEEK. BIG QUESTION REMAINS THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS TNGT AS CAA CONTS TO POUR OVER BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN. TYPICALLY UNDER THIS REGIME...NRN AND ERN WI HOLD ON TO
CLOUDS LONGER THAN MDLS WOULD SUGGEST AND BELIEVE THIS WL BE THE
CASE TNGT. CNTRL WI IS A DIFFERENT STORY WITH A REAL POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FROST AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S. AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH ARX AND MKX...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE FCST FOR CNTRL
WI TNGT AND WL INCLUDE PREVENTIVE WORDING IN THE HWO. ONE LAST
ITEM OF NOTE IS A SMALL CHC OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHWRS OR SPRINKLES
ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE
WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MI. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 35-40 DEGS OVER
NRN/CNTRL WI...TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

THE SFC HI SLIDES TO THE EAST...WHILE THE UPR RDG AXIS PUSHES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS SFC WINDS VEER E-NE...CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER ERN WI THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...NRN AND CNTRL WI SHOULD
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON TUE WITH SOME HI CLOUDS
APPROACHING LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE
55-60 DEG RANGE WITH COOLEST READIGNS LAKESIDE AND WARMEST VALUES
OVER CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST OVERNIGHT...BUT IF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE SLOWS DOWN...SOME ADJUSTMENTS
MAY NEED TO BE MADE.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOOTBALL GAME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS STILL ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ON THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...AND HOLDS PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A LINGERING UPPER TROF OR UPPER LOW (ECMWF) AND COLD NW FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN WI. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PCPN CHANCES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF MAY BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN COOL OFF INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS
AND SPRINKLES POSSIBLE NORTH OF MERRILL. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTERED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE AND BAY
WHERE THEY MIGHT HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM





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