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000
FXUS63 KGRB 060432
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

REMAINING CLOUDS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
SHOULD COME TO AN END. ASOS UNITS AT AIRPORTS IN WAUSAU AND
RHINELANDER HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB REPORTING BLOWING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS WHILE THE AWOS UNITS AT EAGLE
RIVER...ARBORVITAE AND MANITOWISH WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE
AS THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPORT BLOWING SNOW. THE GUSTY
WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO BLOWING
SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT A STEADY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AND HELP
PRODUCE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER
WITH LOWS OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WHERE THERE IS BARE GROUND. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A
VERY NICE PICTURE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER WISCONSIN CAN BE OBTAINED
AT GE.SSEC.WISC.EDU/MODIS-TODAY/ (USE SMALL LETTERS).

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS.

THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION NOTED ON THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAIN
CONCERN IS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO -14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVY
SNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTING
WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR
OUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOW
BAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE
LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH
ROADS.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC
AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND
THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACRS NRN WI HAS PROVED TOUGHER TO DISLODGE THAN
EXPECTED. WL KEEP THEM FOR A TIME IN THE NEW TAFS...THOUGH STILL
EXPECT THEM TO EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-018-
019-030.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI