Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRB 220231
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
931 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND
SUBSIDING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET THIS EVG...WITH
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN WI ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS ACROSS NC/FAR NE WI...BUT
UPDATED THE WORDING FOR LOWER TEMPS AND HEIGHTENED THE WORDING
FOR A HARD FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING IN A FEW COUNTIES...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL
ONLY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS...NOT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AND FROST. OTHERWISE...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DREARY AND WET START TO THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED
OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING AND CLOUDS SCATTERED
OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT MUCH SUNSHINE AND COOL NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH 60 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD GO VERY LIGHT OR
CALM. EASTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY MAY BE SPARED FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT THOUGH THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT FOG OUT OF THE THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT GET AS WARM AS
ANTICIPATED...SO ALREADY STARTED OUT COOL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT N-NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. 12Z GUIDANCE AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER...SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. ONLY WORRY WILL BE AN AREA OF WAA ADVECTION AND A FEW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT IT SEEMS THIS FEATURE WILL NOT REACH
THE CWA UNTIL ALMOST 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY. AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY JUMP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MDLS CONT TO INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT FROM WRN CONUS UPR RDG/ERN
CONUS UPR TROF TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG THIS
WEEK. THE ONLY SNAFU THAT COULD RUIN A COMPLETELY DRY FCST FOR NE
WI WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF A SHEARED UPR LOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRODUCE ANY PCPN...THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPR RDG BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
ERN CONUS...TEMPS WL RESPOND AND BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS A
GOOD 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE.

HI PRES TO DRIFT EWD NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHED NW INTO WI MON NGT. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NE WI...BUT TEMPS WL NOT BE AS COOL AS
SUNDAY NGT DUE TO WEAK WAA ALREADY UNDERWAY THRU THE NGT. 8H TEMPS
TO RISE TO AROUND +10C (COMPARED TO +6C SUNDAY NGT)...THUS MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. EVEN AS THE SFC HI SLIDES FARTHER E-NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE...UPR HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BUILD
ACROSS WI...THUS KEEPING THE FCST AREA MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
65-70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE A SHRTWV TROF TO BE
SITUATED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE GETTING TAPPED BY A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TUE NGT. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPR RDG LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST...THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NGT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS APPEAR PRETTY UNIFORM WITH
UPR 40S NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH. THIS SHRTWV TROF IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SHEARED WITH TIME ON WED...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...CONT TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAN SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL WI WED AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHC
OF SEEING ANY PCPN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
60S N-CNTRL AND LAKESHORE...TO THE LWR 70S E-CNTRL WI.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF DOES REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF FALLING APART...JUST DO NOT SEE ENUF FORCING OR
LIFT TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A POP. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD
OF THE FCST DRY UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BIG STORY
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF A DEEP UPR
TROF INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRI AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPR
RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR
MASS WL TAKE PLACE WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI REACHING THE LWR TO MID
70S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS WERE SUBSIDING OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
(BASES 4000-5000 FT) COVERED PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN MN...AND WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WI.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVG...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING IN NC WI LATE TONIGHT.
WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MOIST SOIL FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAIN...
PATCHY FOG IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE
THE FOG WILL BE...AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...THE
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER IA...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS. HAVE KEPT FOG IN THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT VSBYS UP SLIGHTLY FOR NOW.

AFTER PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES EARLY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.