Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 281223

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
623 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 346 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

First round of rain moved through the area overnight and brought
a quarter to half inch of rain to most places. The upper jet that
helped produce the rain will exit the region around daybreak and
expect a break in the rain for the most part until later this
afternoon when a second strong upper jet approaches from the
south. This should produce convective showers during the late
afternoon and evening and perhaps a few thunderstorms south of
highway 10. The rain should end from south to north late tonight
as upper forcing departs. Some clearing expected Tuesday.

Highs today and Tuesday will be 10 or more degrees above normal.
Lows tonight will be around 20 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 346 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Precip trends as occluded low pressure moves across the western
Great Lakes is the main forecast concern.  Will continue to lean on
the ecmwf based upon comparisons to the ensemble means.

Tuesday night thru Wednesday night...A rather deep occluded low will
slowly slide east across the region during this period.  Deep
moisture beneath this low will initially reside from northern Iowa
to north-central Wisconsin on Tuesday evening, so will include only
a slight chance of rain and snow in the forecast.  This deeper
moisture will finally shift east with the movement of the low on
Wednesday, bringing a chance of rain and snow to north-central WI,
and a chance of light rain elsewhere. Deep cyclonic flow and
slightly colder air will persist across the region on Wednesday
night, with rain and snow showers continuing.

Rest of the forecast...Though low pressure will be moving east of
region on Thursday, strong cyclonic flow does not relent, and
therefore should see occasional rain and snow showers.  Some precip
may linger over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin into
Thursday night, but guidance point towards mid-level moisture
departing, which should end the precip potential over central and
east-central WI. Despite precip ending, low clouds look slow to
depart thanks to thermal troughing and low level cyclonic flow on
Friday and possibly into Saturday as well. The next shortwave trough
looks to arrive on Sunday and will bring the next chance of light

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 623 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

IFR conditions expected across the region through
tonight. Showers will return in the afternoon hours with a slight
chance of thunderstorms south of a Green Bay to Wisconsin Rapids
line. A surface trough will move across the area towards daybreak
and bring drier air and improving conditions Tuesday.



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