Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 141944
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
244 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

MAIN FOCUS TO BE ON FIRE WEATHER FOR WED AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS
COMBINES WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...MODEST SE WINDS AND
CURRENT DRY FUEL LEVELS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES STRETCHED
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRES
WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTED OVER NE WI
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID TEENS
ACROSS ALL BUT E-CNTRL WI WHERE VALUES WERE IN THE LWR 20S.

THE SFC HI DRIFTS TO THE EAST AND WL REACH ERN ONTARIO/ERN GREAT
LAKES BY DAYBREAK. NE WI WL CONT TO SEE HI CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD
ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GULF COAST
STATES. THESE CLOUDS WL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS AND WITH NEAR
CALM SFC WINDS/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT READINGS TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...UPR 20S TO LWR 30S CNTRL WI...LWR
30S E-CNTRL WI AND MID TO UPR 30S NEAR LAKE MI.

WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY RETREATING AREA OF
HI PRES THRU WED WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING A SE WIND
COMPONENT...A HIGHER WIND SPEED AND A SLGT UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS AS MAX
TEMPS REACH THE MID TO UPR 60S INLAND (UPR 50S LAKESIDE)...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
INLAND...WIND SPEEDS REACH 10 TO 15 MPH AND FUELS ARE VERY DRY.
AFTER TALKING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...SPC AND THE DNR...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CNTRL WI FROM 17Z WED
THRU 01Z THU. THIS AREA TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS...LOWEST DEW
POINTS AND WINDS CLOSER TO 15 MPH. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AN
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING IF THESE CONDITIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER WI
WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY...AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE. HAVE LOWERED
DEW POINTS IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN NORTHERN WI...AND 25 TO 30
PERCENT IN CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER...BUT FORTUNATELY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF/UKMET
HAVE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...KEEP GULF MOISTURE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND SUPPORT A DRY FCST. THE GFS HAS MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...
AND BRINGS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN...LEANING STRONGLY TOWARD THE DRIER PATTERN...AND ONLY
MENTIONING SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL
WARM SPOTS ON FRIDAY.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE WEEKEND DRY...BUT
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HI PRES MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WL GO LGT/VRBL TNGT AND THEN BACK TO THE SE AT AROUND 10
KTS ON WED. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY HI CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ030-035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......AK






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