Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 250718
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
318 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Wet weather will continue into early next week as low pressure
slowly approaches Lower Michigan from the southwest. Temperatures
will be held into the 40s today as clouds and showers become
widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Model continuity was good so few changes were made in the near
term. Likely to categorical POPs through the period with some
wavering in the coverage of showers as low center approaches.

Temperature forecast is also fairly consistent to prior forecast
as clouds and showers will prevent mixing today of shallow cold
air that advected in Friday evening with low level northeast flow.
Coolest conditions will be across the northeast forecast zones
where maxes today will be hard pressed to get out of the 30s. Do
not see any issues with freezing rain as sfc temps should remain
above freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An unsettled and showery pattern will continue Monday night as a
trough of low pressure continues to bring more showers. Low pressure
over the Arklatex region will move northeast along a frontal
boundary and perhaps bring more numerous showers to our southern
fcst area Monday night. However a consensus of latest medium range
guidance now suggests that the steadier pcpn Monday night into
Tuesday will stay south of our fcst area across IN/OH.

Dry weather will finally return Tuesday through midweek as a high
pressure ridge builds in from the north. The next low pressure
system will bring a chance of showers as early as late Wednesday
night with a better chance for rain Thursday through Friday as a
southern Plains low pressure system moves northeast into the lower
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Temperatures will return to
near normal for this time of year through the long range forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Conditions at all the terminals will gradually deteriorate from
primarily VFR at the moment to MVFR and then IFR overnight due to
lowering ceilings showers and development of patchy fog.

A mix of IFR/LIFR conditions is forecast at all the terminals
through the day Saturday and Saturday evening due to very low
ceilings and light rain and fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Kept the Small Craft Advisory going although conditions will be
marginal with waves mostly remaining blo 4 feet and winds barely
above 22 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A wet pattern will continue through much of the next seven days
with multiple rain events taking place. Rainfall totals over the
next week will generally be in the 0.75 to 1.50 inch range. This
will result in rises on area rivers with some area rivers reaching
bankfull starting late this weekend and continuing at bankfull
potentially through the end of next week. Significant river
flooding is not anticipated with the amount of rainfall that is
expected over the next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for LMZ847>849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...Maczko
MARINE...Ostuno


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