Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 161917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Hydro/Marine

Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Rain has become more spotty this afternoon, but will increase some
tonight as the front that is currently going through will return
north as a warm front tonight and early Monday. Showers and storms
tonight will shift to the north on Monday, with warmer temperatures
expected. The associated cold front will move through on Tuesday,
keeping chances of rain in through then.

More rain will become possible on Wednesday and Thursday, especially
across southern areas as another system approaches the area. Cooler
air will follow for the end of the week and next weekend, with
smaller chances of rain remaining possible.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Our main focus for the short term portion of the forecast is mainly
rain trends through Tue with the frontal system remaining in the
region through then. Some thunder will be possible tonight through
Mon night, however we are not expecting anything organized that
would be strong at this time.

We are seeing low clouds/drizzle/fog being the prevailing condition
across the area this afternoon. Latest sfc analysis shows the front
has sank south to just north of I-96 as of 19z. It is slowing its
progress south as expected as the upper wave supporting this is
moving NE of the area. Plenty of low level moisture lingering, and
it will only linger through this evening.

We will see rain chances increase some overnight from south to
north. The moisture transport will ramp up as the llj increase to
over 30 knots ahead of the next wave that will be moving in. The
progression of the rain to the north will occur as the llj helps the
sfc front to move back north as a warm front. All of this
shower/storm activity will be of the elevated variety, so severe wx
is not likely.

The showers and storms should shift almost entirely out of the area
for Mon and Mon night. The warm front should lift to near and north
of the Straits area, taking with it the nose of the llj and best
moisture transport. we will be left with windier conditions and
warmth. We expect that many area will see a good deal of sun on Mon,
which should help lift temps well into the 70s and approach 80.

The chance of rain will come back, mainly Tue morning as the cold
front will push through the area. The cold front will be lacking
good deep moisture ahead of it, and will be coming through before
much heating can take place. It looks to be most of the way through
the area by 18z Tue. The rain chances will end at that time, and we
will cool down back to near seasonable levels.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

An upper trough amplifies across the eastern CONUS during the period
resulting in cool and possibly wet weather much of the time. Low
pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley will spread its northern
precip shield into Lower Michigan with the highest chances being
across the southern zones Wednesday and Thursday.

Colder air on the backside of the low arrives later Thursday and
Friday with the synoptic rain showers replaced with a few lake
enhanced showers. These should end by Friday night but a clipper
arrives Saturday or Sunday in fast northwest flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

IFR conditions will prevail through Monday morning in low clouds
and fog. Conditions should improve to MVFR by 18Z Monday as
southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots.


Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

We will be issuing a small craft advisory for the entire nearshore
from late tonight through Tue afternoon. Winds will start to ramp up
late tonight and will peak Mon night immediately ahead of the cold
front moving into the area. Advisory looks solid, with some
potential for Gales. The warm advection pattern will keep the
highest winds from mixing down through Mon night. Tue we will see
better mixing, but the core of the wind will have moved east ahead
of the front.


Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A widespread half inch of rain fell this morning. Over an inch was
common in the lower Muskegon basin and the lower Grand basin. Over
two inches was reported in northern Kent County and northern
Muskegon County. Fortunately, the smaller river basins that received
the most rain have enough room to handle the runoff. Many rivers
will continue running much higher than seasonal normals this week.
The flood threat is limited by a rather low chance of widespread
heavy rain events this week, though Thursday bears watching for the
upper Grand basin if the expected axis of heavy rain shifts


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for



LONG TERM...Ostuno
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