Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 182318
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
718 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

After one more chilly night, with frost and even some freezing
temperatures, we will see warmer days and nights ahead.  We will see
daytime highs of 70 to 75 Thursday through Saturday, then 75 to 80
into the first half of next week.  Overnight temperatures will be in
the 30s tonight, but then in the 40s and 50s for the rest of the
week and into next week.

The days will be pleasant too, with no rain chances expected until
Monday night.  However we may remain in scattered showers and storms
into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Will expand the frost advisory to include Muskegon, Ottawa and Kent
Counties, otherwise no changes to the current headlines.

The good news received from the local fruit growers is that they
have faired well over the last few nights as precautions have been
taken and we are early enough into the season that impacts have been
minimal.  One more night to get past, and a favorable crop yield
seems likely.

The high pressure center will be directly over the region by
daybreak Thursday when we will see the most favorable radiational
cooling conditions with clear skies and light winds.  What minimal
flow we will see tonight will be from the NNE.  This will allow the
coldest pool of air to flow into the lakeshore areas where some of
the coldest lows should occur.  Therefore will include Muskegon and
Ottawa Counties to the frost advisory.  Will also include Kent
County as much of the northern half of the county should see areas
of frost.  Will not expand farther east as the light NNE flow will
be somewhat off of Saginaw Bay, holding temps up a bit for places
like St. Johns and Lansing where only patchy frost is expected.

Besides tonight the weather will be pleasantly quiet with
temperatures returning to normal values for the rest of the short
term. Surface high pressure will remain over the Great Lakes, while
the upper flow remains northwesterly.  This will result in mostly
clear skies, with just some CU and CI from time to time.  Expect
large diurnal temperature swings given the dry air mass.  We will be
frost-free both Thursday and Friday nights with lows mainly in the
40s.  The upper flow will keep the warming trend a slow one, but
highs will be upper 60s to around 70 Thursday, and 70 to 75 Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Confidence continues to grow that the drier and warming period at
the end of this weekend will persist through much of the long term
period. We will see the large amplitude ridge to our west, gradually
shift over the area this weekend and early next week. This should
continue to squash rain chances and allow for gradual warming. The
new Euro is trying to bring some light QPF to the area on Sat with a
short wave dropping down ahead of the ridge. This should be moisture
starved with a lack of moisture advection into the area.

Better rain chances will move in across the area beginning on
Tuesday, and continue into Wednesday. Models are in agreement in
shifting the long wave ridge axis east of the area at that time,
allowing for a SW flow aloft to settle in. This pattern will be more
conducive for rain chances with short waves lifting out of the SW,
and tapping some Gulf of Mexico moisture. Temperatures will remain
warm with the S-SW flow through the column.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

vfr weather to prevail through the period. with high pressure
overhead...the wind will remain relatively light. A small risk for
fog later tonight. The risk is too low to add it to the forecast
at this time as the atmophere is very dry.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Expect a rather quiet period on the lake.  Light and variable winds
should become onshore during the afternoons/evenings.  Speeds should
be under 15 knots, helping keep waves low.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1136 AM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Given the current trends, advisories at Maple Rapids and Ionia
could possibly be dropped by the end of the work week. Steady
declines should then continue right into the weekend with
primarily dry conditions pushing into early next week. Aside from
a few afternoon showers and storms Monday/Tuesday, elevated rain
chances should hold off until the middle of next week.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ037>040.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ043>046-050>052-
     056-057.

LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK



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