Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 261155
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WILL BE HOISTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KALAMAZOO...CALHOUN...
JACKSON...BARRY...EATON...INGHAM...IONIA AND CLINTON COUNTIES.
THE FOG IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AROUND A QUARTER OF
A MILE. THE FOG IS BEING AIDED BY A MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE
WHICH IS SPREADING IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR. IT APPEARS A SIMILAR
SETUP MAY BE PUSHING A PLUME OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OFF OF
SAGINAW BAY INTO ISABELLA COUNTY. THE STATUS DOES NOT LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
WILL RUN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 1000 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE SOME GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. AN ADDED
COMPONENT IS A MOISTURE PUSH OFF OF LAKE ERIE IN EASTERLY FLOW.
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS BEING ADVECTED TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN OFF OF LAKE ERIE WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND
A QUARTER OF A MILE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE MI/IN STATE
LINE. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES TO SEE JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD THE FOG BECOMES. EXPECTING ANOTHER REPEAT OF THE FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR...NO CHANGE IN SETUP OR
AIR MASS OBVIOUSLY.

OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES. WE WILL BE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
EACH OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THERE IS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SPREADS CIRRUS INTO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS MAY MAKE SUNDAY
THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH JUST SLIGHTLY (MID 70S VS
UPPER 70S).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 70S...10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY MAY
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NRN CWA. THERE/S A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT WAVE WITH IT. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH WE DON/T EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT. A
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER SUPPORT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

STRATUS AND FOG HAS ADVANCED NORTHWEST THROUGH THE KJXN AND KLAN
TAF SITES WITH ORIGINS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJXN AND KLAN SHOULD
LIFT QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS BY 14Z
OR SO. VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MORE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

NO HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER AND LOW RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ058-059-
     065>067-072>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE





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