Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 011029
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
629 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WE HAVE A LARGE HUDSON BAY HIGH
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN MOST OF THIS WEEK. THIS MEANS
COOL AND DRY EASTERLY WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD
PART OF THIS WEEK. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE AREA. BOTH DAY TIME AND OVER NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPEAD FROST IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
GRAND RAPID TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

MY PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE THREAT OF WIDESPEAD
FROST NORTH OF GRAND RAPID TONIGHT AGAIN.

AS IS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WE HAVE A LARGE HUDSON BAY HIGH
OVER THE REGION. TYPICALLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE SEE SEVERAL DAYS
OF EASTERLY WINDS...LOW DEW POINTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE NOW AND
THERE SHOULD BE LESS WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOO. PLUS THE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE. THAT MEANS BETTER COOLING THAN THIS
MORNING. SO I HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN FOR OUR
NORTHERN CWA.

OTHERWISE A SLOW WARMING TREND IS SEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

WE REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC.
THE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOL FLOW OF AIR WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO PCPN.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER MISSOURI MOVING EAST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WHAT MOISTURE THE TROUGH BRINGS WILL GO UP
AGAINST THE DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE
ISN`T REAL HIGH AND IS REFLECTED IN A 30 OR SO POP.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY AND CONTAINS NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE MVFR CIGS OVER AZO AND BTL WILL CLEAR BY 14Z AS THE BACK OF
EDGE OF THOSE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE GONE (14-15Z) I EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL MEAN LIGTHER WINDS
AND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TOO.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

GENERALLY 1-3 INCH RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN THE UPPER
KALAMAZOO AND GRAND RIVER BASINS... AND AN ISOLATED 4-6 IN
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY. AREAL FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT OTHER THAN SOME MINOR LOCAL IMPACTS UNDER THE HEAVIEST
RAIN. RIVERS ARE HANDLING THE RAIN QUITE WELL AT THE MOMENT... AS
THE SOIL HAS HAD TIME TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE RIVERS/CREEKS
NEAR JACKSON... HOLT... AND EAGLE ARE EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST
RISES BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS SOME TIME TO
STABILIZE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM



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