Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 270729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER
WILL RETURN FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND IT WILL BE COOL WITH
BRISK GUSTY NE WINDS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM OVER OUR SOUTHERMOST FCST AREA. HOWEVER MOST AND
PROBABLY ALL CONVECTION WILL STAY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IN/OH WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/OH.

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN
TO BRING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS BEGINING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE
RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING ON AND OFF INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS REVOLVE AROUND HOW ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS HOLDS THE ENERGY BACK
MORE TOWARD THE WESTERN TROUGH WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON THE OTHER
HAND EJECT ENERGY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WEAK
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.

TRENDED OUR FORECAST A BIT DRIER...BUT STILL HAVE RAIN IN THE
FORECAST TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
OR SUPPORT TO TIP THE SCALES COMPLETELY TOWARD DRY OR WET...BUT I AM
LEANING MORE TOWARD DRY. AGAIN THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHICH IS
WHY WE ARE MAINTAINING 30-50 PCT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAN TO MKG
WHERE STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2500 FEET AGL AND TOPS 4000
TO 5000 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 10Z.

THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST AOB 10
KNOTS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ISOLATED AREAS LAST NIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH. SOME QUICK RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS... THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS
ELEVATED THIS WEEK... WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM
RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS


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